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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,426
Even then it will be hard to tell really. It's been coming down for a week, with some even bigger drop-offs at times.

View attachment 195601

I'm now wondering if the news of the Trump announcement was already in the price? In other words, the news was already known to colleagues, family, MAGA supporters etc? Just me being an old cynic.
 




Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,278
Worth a watch. Video clips of Trump having a go at Putin. ,👍. Broe hoping that MAGA may all flip now to support Ukraine.

That was interesting viewing and let’s hope Broe’s take on some of those speeches and statements is right and that Trump throws his weight behind Ukraine. On one of the clips I noted (and agreed with) Kasparov’s comments which were along the lines of no compromise and urging increased support to Ukraine
 




Johnny RoastBeef

These aren't the players you're looking for.
Jan 11, 2016
3,481


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,657
Putin rushes to the Kremlin, late at night.

It could be the usual disinformation of course. Some of the theories in the replies are good (e.g. he needs a poop etc) (y)

 








Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,657
A good target. Ukraine hitting a variety of key targets recently.

'Kremniy El factory produces microelectronics for missile complexes, Pantsir air defense, Iskander missiles, radar and electronic warfare and Russian drones. An important military target.'

I wonder how Ukraine finds these targets? I'm guessing, but they're unlikely to have their own websites, detailing what they make etc.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,909
Wiltshire
Just watching Denys Davydov video. His opinion is the Russian economy will survive for a long time yet, beyond 2025 (he's not an economist). He showed an interesting chart and I've tracked down the article: an analysis of how trade between Russia and other countries has shifted markedly since sanctions. Eg india (no surprise) and Turkey (wtf) have increased. I hope this link works.

Also, here's the link to his full video, which was very informative today.
 
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raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,909
Wiltshire
Always good to hear this lady it's a wide discussion and she's currently slamming Europe for not living up to NATO funding commitments, for not supporting Ukraine enough militarily, and for laundering dirty money from Russia and its allies through Switzerland, Liechtenstein and London.👍👍🏼.
She is excellent, and says Europe needs to get a backbone fast.
She also says that the Baltic cable attacks are already an article 5 issue, if Europe/NATO wanted to proceed. Putin could be warned that it's a red line, one more cable and NATO is in...(but we won't will we, cos as she says there's insufficient backbone).
 
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Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,657
Just watching Denys Davydov video. His opinion is the Russian economy will survive for a long time yet, beyond 2025 (he's not an economist). He showed an interesting chart and I've tracked down the article: an analysis of how trade between Russia and other countries has shifted markedly since sanctions. Eg india (no surprise) and Turkey (wtf) have increased. I hope this link works.

Also, here's the link to his full video, which was very informative today.

You're on fire this morning @ raymondo, just like Russia !

My immediate reaction to Denys' video, is that it may be that keeping the Russian economy going for a long time, may actually be the aim....
I think it was Jake Broe, who asked the question 'why doesn't Ukraine attack Russia's main oil export terminals?' He suggested that the answer is because the aim is to keep the Russian economy going, as a collapsing Russia poses more danger than the current warmongering Russia !

My other reaction to Denys' conclusion, is a bit of a contradiction. Is it a foregone conclusion that Russia's economy will continue for years?' I'm looking for ways to reduce the Russian trade with countries to which Russia has pivoted. For a while, I've been aware that Turkey/Erdogan has been playing both sides. I understand that Erdogan has regional ambitions, and still dreams of joining the EU. I don't know how much Russian trade goes through the Black Sea and Bosphorus, but I suspect it is considerable. Maybe it needs a conversation between Trump and Erdogan?

So there are several options to select from - give the green light to Ukraine to attack Russian oil terminals (e.g. Novorossisysk), talk Turkey,
tariffs, sanctions on Russia, secondary sanctions on trading partners, trade wars, reduce the oil price, keep Russia going, but without its war chest.

There are lots of options.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,909
Wiltshire
You're on fire this morning @ raymondo, just like Russia !

My immediate reaction to Denys' video, is that it may be that keeping the Russian economy going for a long time, may actually be the aim....
I think it was Jake Broe, who asked the question 'why doesn't Ukraine attack Russia's main oil export terminals?' He suggested that the answer is because the aim is to keep the Russian economy going, as a collapsing Russia poses more danger than the current warmongering Russia !

My other reaction to Denys' conclusion, is a bit of a contradiction. Is it a foregone conclusion that Russia's economy will continue for years?' I'm looking for ways to reduce the Russian trade with countries to which Russia has pivoted. For a while, I've been aware that Turkey/Erdogan has been playing both sides. I understand that Erdogan has regional ambitions, and still dreams of joining the EU. I don't know how much Russian trade goes through the Black Sea and Bosphorus, but I suspect it is considerable. Maybe it needs a conversation between Trump and Erdogan?

So there are several options to select from - give the green light to Ukraine to attack Russian oil terminals (e.g. Novorossisysk), talk Turkey,
tariffs, sanctions on Russia, secondary sanctions on trading partners, trade wars, reduce the oil price, keep Russia going, but without its war chest.

There are lots of options.
Thanks, Eric, a very thoughtful response 👍.
Complicated innit 🤔
 




Shropshire Seagull

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2004
8,868
Telford
Without wishing to escalate conflict, I would be VERY interested to see what might happen if China decided now was a good time to open up a second front to reclaim their historical "lost" land.

Not least as North Korea would then be utterly befuddled as to which side they should be on.
It would also be Red on Red !

Is that a bad idea?
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,909
Wiltshire
Without wishing to escalate conflict, I would be VERY interested to see what might happen if China decided now was a good time to open up a second front to reclaim their historical "lost" land.

Not least as North Korea would then be utterly befuddled as to which side they should be on.
It would also be Red on Red !

Is that a bad idea?
It's an excellent idea.
China would stop supplying weapons to Russia; Russia would stop selling their oil to China; and North Korea would get back into their box...controlled and protected by China 👍
 


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