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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,266
Hove






peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,267
1 USD = 104.070 RUB

The Moscow exchange must be closed by now, so this is from trading elsewhere.

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Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,178
I'm not so sure there would be a full-on civil war. Unrest, lawlessness, gunfights on the streets of Moscow sure, but an organised uprising? I'm not so sure. These people are fragmented and diverse across a vast continent.

The reason I say this, is that, according to Paul Warburg, the ethnic republics and oblasts have historically been kept separate, as a deliberate policy, to avoid any organised opposition to Moscow. Warburg suggests that this is the reason there are few roads or rail hubs in Siberia - apart from those that were built to exploit the natural wealth of Siberia. Many communities cannot physically get together to organise opposition or resistance.

That said, the inhabitants of the ethnic republics have never known self-determination. They may sense a power vacuum in Moscow and some may go after those who have oppressed them for centuries. The Russians.
I agree - Russia is a melting pot of different ethnicities who, if central government starts to breakdown, may sense an opportunity to pursue independence. How that might play out is anyone’s guess. Putin has previously had to fight two wars in Chechnya and still can’t totally suppress it.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,178
Looks like the whole world is following your advice !

I can't ever remember a time when I'm looking forward to Monday so much !
For a bit of fun I’ve just tried to open a Ruble account on my Revolut account but surprisingly it’s one of the few currencies they don’t offer ( their systems probably don’t have the capacity to keep up with it!)
 




chickens

Have you considered masterly inactivity?
NSC Patron
Oct 12, 2022
2,688
No.
But I'm not talking about whether it would be 'justified' or not. We're dealing with an unpredictable crackpot dictator who at the moment is seeing British missiles pummelling his country. In his head, that might justify putting us in the crosshairs. An attack on a NATO nation would be a massive escalation obviously, so it could all be bluster as usual. We hope.

I think you have to remember that he’s full of shit. I suspect he threatens to use nukes on his housekeeper if there’s not enough vodka to go on the cornflakes.

I really don’t understand how anyone’s still falling for the “woah, he’s so crazy and unpredictable” nonsense.

He’s entirely predictable. Everything is described as a red line which if crossed will cause Russia to be forced to escalate against Russia’s enemies.

As each red line is crossed, he says “well you may have crossed that red line, but if you cross this next red line, you will see Russia escalate things against its enemies.”

And repeat ad nauseum. He’s boxed in. He can’t escalate to the point of a nuclear conflict as Russia would be destroyed, he can’t escalate to the point of a regular world conflict without China and Iran joining him. NATO are simply better equipped. I don’t think he’d survive being seen to fail at home in Russia, so we have what we have now.

He’s going to have to take a peace deal of some kind, his country is going down the toilet, he’s going to get taken out from within if something doesn’t give shortly.
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,521
Deepest, darkest Sussex
“LET’S GET READY TO RUBLE!”

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dangull

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2013
5,161
Many posts on here say Russia is on the brink of a financial crash. I have not seen anything on the mainstream TV news reporting this?
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,089
Goldstone
Many posts on here say Russia is on the brink of a financial crash. I have not seen anything on the mainstream TV news reporting this?

I don't think they're on the brink. But I also don't think Ukraine's military are on the brink of collapse. I think both can go on for another year. It'll get tougher for Ukraine, but Russia will continue to lose a lot on the battlefield while their economy gets worse. It's difficult to predict how it will end, I just hope we support Ukraine until that end.
 


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