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[Politics] The Labour Government



Pavilionaire

Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,262
Hugo Rune said:
They are keeping their cards under the table for the next election.

I believe that the majority of voters (in this country and certainly America) vote on their own personal economic outlook. Imagine the genuine promises Labour can make to voters about improving their financial lot if they campaign on rejoining the EU in the next election. Most people will have learned by then that the loss of some powers to the EU is more than balanced out with the economic gain they’d see if we rejoined. By 2029, you could be making most families at least £1,000 better off PA by trashing Brexit.

Starmer should put his balls on the line and promise a return to growth on the EU if Labour are re-elected. Sod another referendum.
Click to expand...
I thought they would park the issue, see how things pan out, then reintroduce it as Plan B in the lead-up to the next election if necessary.

However, not content with the constraint of no rises to income tax, Class 1 / 4 NI and VAT they have further constrained themselves on EU trade. They're wearing a new straitjacket over the old straitjacket. Even Houdini couldn't get out of a bind like that.
 




beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,014
Guinness Boy said:
Are you saying people on the minimum wage don't have full time jobs?
Click to expand...
he's saying many people on minimum (or low) wages are part-time. those jobs are greatly impacted by the reduction in NI threshold, more than the headline % NI rise. it'll probably also have an effect where companies employ a large numbers of part-timers rather than fewer full time, to avoid employers NI altogether on those staff. which is probably why this was done. though it catches smaller employers out who have small part time jobs out of necessity.
 


Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,240
Withdean area
Hugo Rune said:
They are keeping their cards under the table for the next election.

I believe that the majority of voters (in this country and certainly America) vote on their own personal economic outlook. Imagine the genuine promises Labour can make to voters about improving their financial lot if they campaign on rejoining the EU in the next election. Most people will have learned by then that the loss of some powers to the EU is more than balanced out with the economic gain they’d see if we rejoined. By 2029, you could be making most families at least £1,000 better off PA by trashing Brexit.

Starmer should put his balls on the line and promise a return to growth on the EU if Labour are re-elected. Sod another referendum.
Click to expand...

Sadly. An excellent LBC hour or two on this subject this afternoon with Shelagh Fogarty with some experts. Labour are not playing a long game or any sort of game. They have no intention or aspirations of joining a customs union or anything closer than that.

THE reason is that they’re aware that their vote in July included traditional Labour voters who are still pro Brexit.

Makes sense mathematically. The party only yielded 33.7% of the electorate. The lowest for a UK government with overall control by a country mile, ever?

Also, very significantly and covered on R4 too, Trump unlike Biden wants a trade deal with the UK. That would give far lower safety and animal wealthfare standards, making any deal with the EU impossible.
 
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beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,014
Skuller said:
1. The first of those sources makes no mention of 2.5%.
2. The second refers to “recent reports suggest….” without giving a source without me creating a login. If you’ve the original source please let us have it.
3. The Sky report refers to another article which reveals that the original report was commissioned by that well-known neutral Sadiq Khan.

And I still don’t get how adding 2.5 to 1.1 gives an astronomical GDP growth way above Europe and approaching US/China levels.
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usually sources refer to a non-brexit model to make a comparison, or it's cumlative of lower growth to date since 2020. then the number gets put next to Q-Q figures to distort the story.
 


Guinness Boy

Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Jul 23, 2003
37,338
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
beorhthelm said:
he's saying many people on minimum (or low) wages are part-time. those jobs are greatly impacted by the reduction in NI threshold, more than the headline % NI rise. it'll probably also have an effect where companies employ a large numbers of part-timers rather than fewer full time, to avoid employers NI altogether on those staff. which is probably why this was done. though it catches smaller employers out who have small part time jobs out of necessity.
Click to expand...
Yes thanks for pointing out the bleedin obvious but my point was more that he was using percentage when it suited him and money when it didn’t. He chose to ignore that and deflect.

By his own logic full time people reduce the percentage burden the more they earn.
 




H

Hiheidi

Well-known member
Dec 27, 2022
1,881
Hugo Rune said:
I believe that the majority of voters (in this country and certainly America) vote on their own personal economic outlook. Imagine the genuine promises Labour can make to voters about improving their financial lot if they campaign on rejoining the EU in the next election. Most people will have learned by then that the loss of some powers to the EU is more than balanced out with the economic gain they’d see if we rejoined. By 2029, you could be making most families at least £1,000 better off PA by trashing Brexit.

Starmer should put his balls on the line and promise a return to growth on the EU if Labour are re-elected. Sod another referendum.
Click to expand...

The EU won't let them put VAT on private school fees, so that would be an interesting step down after all the fuss they made over it.
 
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WATFORD zero

WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,751
Hiheidi said:
The EU won't let them put VAT on private school fees, so that would be an interesting step down after all the fuss they made over it.
Click to expand...

As reasons to completely destroy your economy and power within the 21st century world order, it's one of the best I've heard.

(Sorry, that wasn't a compliment :smile: )
 


Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,240
Withdean area
With all the talk of economic growth in this thread (I’ve only ever heard the likes of Jonathan Porritt and Caroline Lucas argue for a different world, everyone seems to ignore that), it’s worth mentioning this.

On the radio this week someone made a passing comment, I’ve fact checked it and it’s true. Before the Great Recession, in 2007 the EU and US economies were a near identical size with annual GDP at USD14.5T and USD14.7T, now they’re USD17.9T and USD29.3T. The loss of the UK accounts for USD3T of that.

The US just does enterprise and innovation more nimbly, it really is a powerhouse. Aided of course by the big tech Magnificent Seven too.

I’m sure economists ponder this …. how can wider Europe get the growth almost everyone says is required to deliver the tax and wealth for the continent to solve its issues?
 




nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,571
Gods country fortnightly
Weststander said:
Sadly. An excellent LBC hour or two on this subject this afternoon with Shelagh Fogarty with some experts. Labour are not playing a long game or any sort of game. They have no intention or aspirations of joining a customs union or anything closer than that.

THE reason is that they’re aware that their vote in July included traditional Labour voters who are still pro Brexit.

Makes sense mathematically. The party only yielded 33.7% of the electorate. The lowest for a UK government with overall control by a country mile, ever?

Also, very significantly and covered on R4 too, Trump unlike Biden wants a trade deal with the UK. That would give far lower safety and animal wealthfare standards, making any deal with the EU impossible.
Click to expand...
Trump would like a deal with the UK but on his terms and we'd get screwed.

The only way I can see Labour shifting is if the LD's move position (quite possible), Labour lose loads in the next election and are forced into coalition and get bounced into something.
 


nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,571
Gods country fortnightly
Weststander said:
With all the talk of economic growth in this thread (I’ve only ever heard the likes of Jonathan Porritt and Caroline Lucas argue for a different world, everyone seems to ignore that), it’s worth mentioning this.

On the radio this week someone made a passing comment, I’ve fact checked it and it’s true. Before the Great Recession, in 2007 the EU and US economies were a near identical size with annual GDP at USD14.5T and USD14.7T, now they’re USD17.9T and USD29.3T. The loss of the UK accounts for USD3T of that.

The US just does enterprise and innovation more nimbly, it really is a powerhouse. Aided of course by the big tech Magnificent Seven too.

I’m sure economists ponder this …. how can wider Europe get the growth almost everyone says is required to deliver the tax and wealth for the continent to solve its issues?
Click to expand...
The US has done incredibly well, but as a nation money hasn't brought them happiness. Too much wealth tied up in too few, a lesson for us all.
 


Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,240
Withdean area
nicko31 said:
The US has done incredibly well, but as a nation money hasn't brought them happiness. Too much wealth tied up in too few, a lesson for us all.
Click to expand...

Definitely a nation of shocking contrasts. In rich Fifth Avenue you literally walk past beggars with no shoes who look so ill, guessing opioids addicts from their epidemic?

On the working conditions side. A nurse in a private hospital can earn up to $100k, lawyers (not partners) on £140k in The City can earn well over $200k in NYC. But you give your life to the career, holiday entitlement rubbish in my opinion … but it’s the American work hard way.
 






Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,240
Withdean area
nicko31 said:
Trump would like a deal with the UK but on his terms and we'd get screwed.

The only way I can see Labour shifting is if the LD's move position (quite possible), Labour lose loads in the next election and are forced into coalition and get bounced into something.
Click to expand...

Interesting how Ed Davey etc made the EU a non topic in July.

My guess was because swathes of their SW and West heartland was anti EU? They needed every vote to edge past Tories in marginals.

I’ve said all along that shirley one of the traditional parties could go all out customs union for starters. Seems not.

Their own polling and focus groups I suspect look this on the EU:
- the vast majority put it way down their list of priorities, even if Remainers in 2016.
- 30% diehard anti EU. Now emboldened by Trump, Meloni, Le Pen.
- some avid EU re-entry folk, a top priority, but it’s notable how the numbers and noise has waned. Using very unrepresentative nsc as a bellwether, perhaps just a dozen folk who ever lament about the EU.
 


nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,571
Gods country fortnightly
Weststander said:
Definitely a nation of shocking contrasts. In rich Fifth Avenue you literally walk past beggars with no shoes who look so ill, guessing opioids addicts from their epidemic?

On the working conditions side. A nurse in a private hospital can earn up to $100k, lawyers (not partners) on £140k in The City can earn well over $200k in NYC. But you give your life to the career, holiday entitlement rubbish in my opinion … but it’s the American work hard way.
Click to expand...
And you're got to sort your healthcare, without it you're screwed
 






D

dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,625
Guinness Boy said:
Yes thanks for pointing out the bleedin obvious but my point was more that he was using percentage when it suited him and money when it didn’t. He chose to ignore that and deflect.

By his own logic full time people reduce the percentage burden the more they earn.
Click to expand...
I'll point out the bleeding obvious again. For anyone earning £9,100 per year or more, the employer's NIC is rising by a flat rate of £615 PLUS 1.2% of the excess over £9,100. I have to use both percentage and flat rate figures because that's how the government has laid out the increase.

And the bleeding obvious result of increasing the rate by a flat rate plus percentage, is that the employers of the lowest paid employees (who by definition must be part time) get the biggest increase. So yes, employers of full time staff will get a lower percentage rise than employers of people earning perhaps £10k as part time staff.
 










LamieRobertson

LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
48,400
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Kinky Gerbil said:
Scottish Labour say they will bring back the Winter fuel allowance if voted in.
Not sure Starmer/Reeves will be overly happy with this
Click to expand...
An extract from an article


Up to 100,000 pensioners will be pushed into poverty by the decision to end universal winter fuel payments, the Government has admitted.

The revelation was included in an impact assessment conducted by the Department of Work and Pensions and shared with a parliamentary committee.

It estimates that, when housing costs are included, up to 100,000 more pensioners will be in relative poverty by 2027 as a result of the policy. Relative poverty was defined by the department as a pensioner who is on 60 per cent of the UK’s median income after the impact of housing costs.

It is the first time the full financial effect of Labour’s decision to no longer give all pensioners the payments of up to £300 has been disclosed.
 


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