[Albion] Four points separating 3rd from 13th

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Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
7,340
I don't know what made me look at the other end of the table. Let's call it a whim. The current three all have seven points or less. Since we've been in the division 24 teams have reached this point having gained 7 points or less. Of the 21 that did it in previous seasons, 13 were relegated that season. Newcastle would have made it 14 in 2021/22 had they not had a massive influx of January spending money from their Saudi buy-out. On that basis, if none are bought out by oil states, it seems that Southampton Wolves and Palace all have about a one in three chance of surviving this year.

2024/25 - Southampton (4), Wolves (6), Crystal Palace (7)
2023/24 - Everton(3), Sheff Utd (4), Burnley (4), Bournemouth (6), Luton (6)
2022/23 - Forest (5), Leicester (5)
2021/22 - Norwich (5) Newcastle (5)*
2020/21 - Sheff Utd (1), WBA (6), Burnley (6), Fulham (7)
2019/20 - Watford (5), Norwich (5)
2018/19 - Fulham (5), Cardiff (5), Huddersfield (6), Newcastle (6), Southampton (7)
2017/18 - Crystal Palace (4)

(Those in bold survived).
* Survived after becoming the first club ever to spend over €100m in the January transfer window. Still the second most ever spent by one club at that window. Only surpassed by Chelsea's 22/23 lunacy. (Don't ever mention this to Newcastle fans, because they still want to believe that they hardly spent anything and that it was Eddie Howe's genius that kept them up).
 


McTavish

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2014
1,582
Between 3rd and 11th, all teams have five wins and so are separated only by the number of draws and GD.
 


Hovegull

Well-known member
Nov 27, 2022
572
It’s certainly feeling like a very open season, there’s no team, that you can’t win against. With the fringe teams like Villa, Spurs and Newcastle not feeling like particular threats either.
One team that will do well out of this is Man United who will likely find some form now, and be able to relatively quickly climb the table.
 




Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
7,340
Of course, all teams have not played all teams yet and some have had more difficult starts than others. According to Experimental 3-6-1, only one team has already played the seven teams predicted to be the strongest by an amalgam of bookies odds: https://www.experimental361.com/p/breaking-down-the-2024-25-premier

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No not Wolves. All talk of them being in a false position because of their brutal start to the season is based on them playing only five of the strongest seven. That is the second highest, level with Bournemouth and Chelsea (who can play only six because they are one of them). League leaders Liverpool, as well as Spurs and Man Utd have played only three. Until yesterday, Champions League contenders Nottingham Forest along with Ipswich had faced only two. Everton have still faced only two.
 
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ROSM

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2005
6,727
Just far enough away from LDC
Next 7 games could be anywhere between 18 and 7 points. My own guess is 14 which would see us on 33 points from 18 games so on par for 68 points for the season

Which only once has seen a team outside of the top 6 in the last 10 years
 




Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
20,703
Eastbourne
(Don't ever mention this to Newcastle fans, because they still want to believe that they hardly spent anything and that it was Eddie Howe's genius that kept them up).
This is absolutely correct. Had a text after the game from a Geordie mate who framed our win with 'But you've outspent us by miles'. Then I pointed out that over the last 5 years they'd had a net spend of 415 million, the fifth highest in the league. Whilst we have a net PROFIT of 39 million which is the second lowest.
 


Brian Munich

teH lulZ
Jul 7, 2008
194
This is our record after 11 games for each year we've been in the EPL. We're generally strongish starters, but this is the first season where it feels like there is more to come rather than thinking 'Can it last?'

2017/18 - Hughton - 8th - 15 points 0 GD
2018/19 - Hughton - 12th - 11 points -4GD
2019/20 - Potter - 8th - 15 points 0 GD
2020/21 - Potter - 16th - 10 points -3GD
2021/22 - Potter - 7th - 17 points - 0GD
2022/23 - Potter/De Zerbi - 4th - 20 points +6GD
2023/24 - De Zerbi - 7th - 18 points +4GD
2024/25 - Hurzeler - 6th - 19 points +4GD
Not sure you’ve got 22/23 right there. 11 game that season was, coincidentally, the loss at Man City, and if my source is correct we were only on 15 points (in 8th position).
 


Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
7,340
Not sure you’ve got 22/23 right there. 11 game that season was, coincidentally, the loss at Man City, and if my source is correct we were only on 15 points (in 8th position).
Yes. Transfermarkt has provided the matches and points totals in game week order despite the Bournemouth and Palace games being rescheduled because of the death of the queen. Potter's last game against Leicester was our 6th game, leaving us on 13 points. We then drew with Liverpool, lost to Spurs & Brentford, drew with Forest and lost to City, so 15 points and +1 GD. We won the two rearranged games later in the season, but although scheduled as games 10 & 11, they weren't in our first eleven games played.
 




Brian Munich

teH lulZ
Jul 7, 2008
194
Yes. Transfermarkt has provided the matches and points totals in game week order despite the Bournemouth and Palace games being rescheduled because of the death of the queen. Potter's last game against Leicester was our 6th game, leaving us on 13 points. We then drew with Liverpool, lost to Spurs & Brentford, drew with Forest and lost to City, so 15 points and +1 GD. We won the two rearranged games later in the season, but although scheduled as games 10 & 11, they weren't in our first eleven games played.
Of course, combination of rail strikes and national mourning meant rearrangement of those 2. Quite convenient really given that we would've likely been managerless for both.
 




chaileyjem

#BarberIn
NSC Patron
Jun 27, 2012
14,585
The good thing is that we play mostly mid-table teams, which are generally our bread and butter.
Last year we won 12 games. They came against the teams that finished 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th (twice) , 18th and 20th.
We'd have been relegated without those very useful wins against teams in the bottom five.
 




Johnny RoastBeef

These aren't the players you're looking for.
Jan 11, 2016
3,470
Our fixtures so far have been amongst the toughest faced by any side.

Just had a look at Forest's next 4 fixtures.

Away to Arsenal, Man City and Man United and a home banana skin v Ipswich.

I think they'll be the team you get every season which starts well and then sinks link a rock as the season progresses.
 


Brian Munich

teH lulZ
Jul 7, 2008
194
Our fixtures so far have been amongst the toughest faced by any side.

Just had a look at Forest's next 4 fixtures.

Away to Arsenal, Man City and Man United and a home banana skin v Ipswich.

I think they'll be the team you get every season which starts well and then sinks link a rock as the season progresses.
I’ve been convinced since watching their win against Palace that they’re in a false position. It was one of the lowest quality Premier League games I’ve seen.
 


Motogull

Todd Warrior
Sep 16, 2005
10,439
13th is defo a 'cut off' of sorts. No team higher than 13th has a -ve GD but every club 14th and below does by at least 6. Bit of a mixed bag too with some proper leaky defences and goal shy outfits.

Numbers don't lie.
 


Safe.

Well-known member
Jun 8, 2008
2,289
I think the key difference between us and some of the other teams in those positions is our depth. Hurzeler must utilize our squad depth to the utmost and the players must feel the responsibility to execute. If those two things are fulfilled to our highest capability I believe we will finish in a European spot. Easier said than done though, of course need an element of luck too
 






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