Our record against a lot of teams in the Championship was very good.
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[Albion] Four points separating 3rd from 13th
- Thread starter kevo
- Start date
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 7,421
I don't know what made me look at the other end of the table. Let's call it a whim. The current three all have seven points or less. Since we've been in the division 24 teams have reached this point having gained 7 points or less. Of the 21 that did it in previous seasons, 13 were relegated that season. Newcastle would have made it 14 in 2021/22 had they not had a massive influx of January spending money from their Saudi buy-out. On that basis, if none are bought out by oil states, it seems that Southampton Wolves and Palace all have about a one in three chance of surviving this year.
2024/25 - Southampton (4), Wolves (6), Crystal Palace (7)
2023/24 - Everton(3), Sheff Utd (4), Burnley (4), Bournemouth (6), Luton (6)
2022/23 - Forest (5), Leicester (5)
2021/22 - Norwich (5) Newcastle (5)*
2020/21 - Sheff Utd (1), WBA (6), Burnley (6), Fulham (7)
2019/20 - Watford (5), Norwich (5)
2018/19 - Fulham (5), Cardiff (5), Huddersfield (6), Newcastle (6), Southampton (7)
2017/18 - Crystal Palace (4)
(Those in bold survived).
* Survived after becoming the first club ever to spend over €100m in the January transfer window. Still the second most ever spent by one club at that window. Only surpassed by Chelsea's 22/23 lunacy. (Don't ever mention this to Newcastle fans, because they still want to believe that they hardly spent anything and that it was Eddie Howe's genius that kept them up).
2024/25 - Southampton (4), Wolves (6), Crystal Palace (7)
2023/24 - Everton(3), Sheff Utd (4), Burnley (4), Bournemouth (6), Luton (6)
2022/23 - Forest (5), Leicester (5)
2021/22 - Norwich (5) Newcastle (5)*
2020/21 - Sheff Utd (1), WBA (6), Burnley (6), Fulham (7)
2019/20 - Watford (5), Norwich (5)
2018/19 - Fulham (5), Cardiff (5), Huddersfield (6), Newcastle (6), Southampton (7)
2017/18 - Crystal Palace (4)
(Those in bold survived).
* Survived after becoming the first club ever to spend over €100m in the January transfer window. Still the second most ever spent by one club at that window. Only surpassed by Chelsea's 22/23 lunacy. (Don't ever mention this to Newcastle fans, because they still want to believe that they hardly spent anything and that it was Eddie Howe's genius that kept them up).
It’s certainly feeling like a very open season, there’s no team, that you can’t win against. With the fringe teams like Villa, Spurs and Newcastle not feeling like particular threats either.
One team that will do well out of this is Man United who will likely find some form now, and be able to relatively quickly climb the table.
One team that will do well out of this is Man United who will likely find some form now, and be able to relatively quickly climb the table.
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 7,421
Of course, all teams have not played all teams yet and some have had more difficult starts than others. According to Experimental 3-6-1, only one team has already played the seven teams predicted to be the strongest by an amalgam of bookies odds: https://www.experimental361.com/p/breaking-down-the-2024-25-premier
No not Wolves. All talk of them being in a false position because of their brutal start to the season is based on them playing only five of the strongest seven. That is the second highest, level with Bournemouth and Chelsea (who can play only six because they are one of them). League leaders Liverpool, as well as Spurs and Man Utd have played only three. Until yesterday, Champions League contenders Nottingham Forest along with Ipswich had faced only two. Everton have still faced only two.
No not Wolves. All talk of them being in a false position because of their brutal start to the season is based on them playing only five of the strongest seven. That is the second highest, level with Bournemouth and Chelsea (who can play only six because they are one of them). League leaders Liverpool, as well as Spurs and Man Utd have played only three. Until yesterday, Champions League contenders Nottingham Forest along with Ipswich had faced only two. Everton have still faced only two.
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ROSM
Well-known member
Next 7 games could be anywhere between 18 and 7 points. My own guess is 14 which would see us on 33 points from 18 games so on par for 68 points for the season
Which only once has seen a team outside of the top 6 in the last 10 years
Which only once has seen a team outside of the top 6 in the last 10 years
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
This is absolutely correct. Had a text after the game from a Geordie mate who framed our win with 'But you've outspent us by miles'. Then I pointed out that over the last 5 years they'd had a net spend of 415 million, the fifth highest in the league. Whilst we have a net PROFIT of 39 million which is the second lowest.
Brian Munich
teH lulZ
- Jul 7, 2008
- 336
Not sure you’ve got 22/23 right there. 11 game that season was, coincidentally, the loss at Man City, and if my source is correct we were only on 15 points (in 8th position).
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 7,421
Yes. Transfermarkt has provided the matches and points totals in game week order despite the Bournemouth and Palace games being rescheduled because of the death of the queen. Potter's last game against Leicester was our 6th game, leaving us on 13 points. We then drew with Liverpool, lost to Spurs & Brentford, drew with Forest and lost to City, so 15 points and +1 GD. We won the two rearranged games later in the season, but although scheduled as games 10 & 11, they weren't in our first eleven games played.
Brian Munich
teH lulZ
- Jul 7, 2008
- 336
Of course, combination of rail strikes and national mourning meant rearrangement of those 2. Quite convenient really given that we would've likely been managerless for both.
Brian Munich
teH lulZ
- Jul 7, 2008
- 336
The good thing is that we play mostly mid-table teams, which are generally our bread and butter.So we don't play anyone good again until 2025?
What could possibly go wrong?
- Jun 27, 2012
- 14,678
Last year we won 12 games. They came against the teams that finished 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th (twice) , 18th and 20th.
We'd have been relegated without those very useful wins against teams in the bottom five.
Johnny RoastBeef
These aren't the players you're looking for.
- Jan 11, 2016
- 3,475
Our fixtures so far have been amongst the toughest faced by any side.
Just had a look at Forest's next 4 fixtures.
Away to Arsenal, Man City and Man United and a home banana skin v Ipswich.
I think they'll be the team you get every season which starts well and then sinks link a rock as the season progresses.
Just had a look at Forest's next 4 fixtures.
Away to Arsenal, Man City and Man United and a home banana skin v Ipswich.
I think they'll be the team you get every season which starts well and then sinks link a rock as the season progresses.
Brian Munich
teH lulZ
- Jul 7, 2008
- 336
I’ve been convinced since watching their win against Palace that they’re in a false position. It was one of the lowest quality Premier League games I’ve seen.
I think the key difference between us and some of the other teams in those positions is our depth. Hurzeler must utilize our squad depth to the utmost and the players must feel the responsibility to execute. If those two things are fulfilled to our highest capability I believe we will finish in a European spot. Easier said than done though, of course need an element of luck too
oldboyroy
Well-known member
Out of that section of games I fancy us to get 14 points. Expect us to lose at Fulham but think we'll get points out of the rest including wins against Southampton. Leicester Palace and West Ham. Side note though, I haven't predicted any correct scores yet so far