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[Technology] In six years will AI have completely re-engineered society?



Sorrel

Sorrel

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,941
Back in East Sussex
Mustafa II said:
Don't you think you could be underestimating the exponential development of the technology, coupled with the massive amounts of new data it has access to every day.

It just seems as if because it is so responsible for its own evolution, it is evolving quicker than any other technology has in history.

I don't doubt your comment is completely true and relevant today, but it seems like only tomorrow (figuratively) it will be capable of the very things you say it is not currently capable of.
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I find AI is like talking to someone "empty". They say sensible things, but are missing any kind of spark.

Even if that were programmed into them it remains the "random" element that is most important. Humans have motivation beyond randomness, so I think some kind of motivation would be needed to make that leap. Probably that is what would make them dangerous, though - that ulterior motive.
 




beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,014
people have been shocked by the evolution of LLMs and generative AI, and assume next level AGI is around the corner, unaware of the huge computational power needed for training and the experts dont know how to get from here to AGI. developers i work with, including in machine learning, are simply using it to shortcut some low level mundane processes. AI it doesn't know what to create, it cant translate user or business requirements to software designs, it cant debug, recognise and fix defects, it cant build the systems to run it on, it cant negotiate access to data or arrange user support, etc, etc.

AI is as transformational as 3D printing. it's great for prototyping, great for low skilled to output something useful, but not going to replace real engineering or output at industrial scale. the one way we'll see society change is when there surge of power stations built then abandoned when it's realised there's little use for this current generation of AI.
 


Mustafa II

Mustafa II

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2022
1,818
Hove
Sorrel said:
I find AI is like talking to someone "empty". They say sensible things, but are missing any kind of spark.

Even if that were programmed into them it remains the "random" element that is most important. Humans have motivation beyond randomness, so I think some kind of motivation would be needed to make that leap. Probably that is what would make them dangerous, though - that ulterior motive.
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I find this topic fascinating, and your post an interesting perspective to be fair. For curiousity, I put your post into an AI model for a response, and got back what you would describe is a sensible but 'sparkless' response. I then asked it to type it more like a human would, and it delivered, convincingly.

Essentially, it is doing what it is asked to do. If you asked it to make a power point presentation, except to include common human errors, it would do so. I think the reason you find AI so 'empty' and without spark is because it is so impeccably flawless. There are no spelling, punctual or mostly even any factual errors. There's no deviation from perfection, as long as the data it has been provided is perfect, unless asked.

Becoming philosophical a bit - I would say it is human beings that are random and unpredictable, not AI. AI may have randomness built in, but it is human beings that are truly random... and that's free will, if you like... and is exactly what does and will always (?) separate us from AI.
 


hans kraay fan club

hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,759
Chandlers Ford
hans kraay fan club said:
Is it going to come round to fix your burst pipe / loose roof tile / broken lock, too?
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Mustafa II said:
AI powered robots will be doing these kinds of jobs sooner than you think...
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hans kraay fan club said:
How do you know, how soon I think that might be possible?
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Mustafa II said:
I'm going to get AI to reply to this:

"Fair question! I can’t know exactly what you think, but with the rapid advances in robotics and AI, it seems like these types of tasks might be within reach sooner than we’d expect. Robotics companies are already testing prototypes for various repair and maintenance tasks, and they’re improving every year. While fully autonomous solutions might take a while for complex jobs like roof repairs or plumbing, there’s a big push toward AI-assisted tools that could eventually handle these tasks more efficiently. Do you think certain aspects of these jobs will stay out of reach for robots, or could tech surprise us?"

This reply acknowledges their perspective while adding context about the current progress in AI and robotics for manual tasks.
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I can’t know exactly what you think, but with the rapid advances in robotics and AI, it seems like these types of tasks might be within reach sooner than we’d expect.

This is valueless piffle. It has simply made exactly the same mistake/ assumption that you did. It doesn’t know ’how soon I expect’. And if it is suggesting that it can happen faster than IT expects - then that’s evidently self-contradictory.
 
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Barnet Seagull

Barnet Seagull

Luxury Player
Jul 14, 2003
5,983
Falmer, soon...
There's a certain inevitability in the continued march of technology that the existing economic and political landscape can't remain the same. I'm really hopeful that we'll see Universal Basic Income and an Automated Payment transaction tax running via a digital currency in my lifetime due to the societal benefits both would bring. What saddens me however is that I don't expect fast progress. This is because those who stand to lose out are those who profit from inequality and they are wealthy and powerful. Changing the order of things will be resisted.

6 years though? I don't see it. AI is only as good as the data it is able to use and the current levels of curation needed to make it make sense of individual businesses is some way off, it simply can't replace domain level expertise, yet. It will come though. I've probably got 9 years left till I can retire. I'm already seeing AI appear in some of the new systems were implementing, removing code and even no-code entirely and providing insight at pace. Ultimately it still requires a human to interpret, sanity check and implement, so we're not all going to be jobless. As with all these things, efficiency allows us to do more, so we will do, it'll just be different stuff.
 






clapham_gull

clapham_gull

Legacy Fan
Aug 20, 2003
25,876
beorhthelm said:
people have been shocked by the evolution of LLMs and generative AI, and assume next level AGI is around the corner, unaware of the huge computational power needed for training and the experts dont know how to get from here to AGI. developers i work with, including in machine learning, are simply using it to shortcut some low level mundane processes. AI it doesn't know what to create, it cant translate user or business requirements to software designs, it cant debug, recognise and fix defects, it cant build the systems to run it on, it cant negotiate access to data or arrange user support, etc, etc.

AI is as transformational as 3D printing. it's great for prototyping, great for low skilled to output something useful, but not going to replace real engineering or output at industrial scale. the one way we'll see society change is when there surge of power stations built then abandoned when it's realised there's little use for this current generation of AI.
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Depends which industry you are talking about.

It is already having a huge impact on the creative industries, something we have historically been very good and profitable at.
 


B

Brovion

In my defence, I was left unsupervised.
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
19,863
Badger said:
I'm also a software developer and I can see AI having an impact on our industry but I don't think it will replace most of the actual development. I try and avoid using AI things but I have seen demonstrations on how it can be useful for writing tests and simple functions. It can't write complex systems with very specific and often changing requirements though. There is always going to be a need for developers to actually write code and manage the infrastructure and release processes.

Maybe development teams will get smaller and AI will be a useful tool to use alongside traditional coding. You'll probably spend a portion of your time setting up the parameters for the AI but that's not much different to what I do now with build servers etc.

Having said that, I find myself a lot less enthusiastic about the technology industry these days. All anyone talks about is AI. It's not the be-all and end-all of technology.
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Yeah, I don't think it will completely replace the Software Developer, in the same as with word processing and the desktop computers you still needed people to actually type documents - but it will change. You've listed some of the things it can't currently do, but for how much longer?

Obviously the IT industry has changed and evolved over the years (I remember when it was called DP, Data Processing, not IT) and the role of the 'computer programmer' has changed, but AI will be a change like no other. One thing I forsee in the future is the rise of the job of 'Prompt Engineer', i.e. someone whose job it is to ask the right questions of the AI tools. They won't need to understand what, say, Reflection is in C#.

EDIT: But to answer the original question, no I don't think it'll happen in the next six years.
 
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B

Brovion

In my defence, I was left unsupervised.
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
19,863
Milano said:
I'm circa 10 years from retiring if everything goes to plan (assuming my pension isn't then worth zero!!). I've been 30 years in IT, it's been a great career.
However, I've been actively putting off my teenage kids going anywhere near IT for a while now as I can see a big downturn coming.
Hopefully I see it out, but I'd feel a bit concerned for someone 30/40 who needs another 25 years out of it.
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Yes I agree. My advice to any youngster thinking of going into something like software development is - don't. Or certainly don't think it will be like it is today. Instead go into something practical like building, plumbing, farming, etc. Those jobs aren't going to be replaced by AI any time soon. Any job/career that relies on a human thought process is up for grabs and WILL change.

(Of course I may be being a bit too pessimistic as looking at the responses on this thread others don't share that view).
 


HeaviestTed

HeaviestTed

I’m eating
NSC Patron
Mar 23, 2023
2,124
Here is why ai won’t work in its current form and nothing that I have seen will change that in six years.

I’m on the nsc thread “lose 7 lbs” so have been tracking my weight in kg but only really understand pounds and stones so asked Claude to tell me how to convert.

It spat out some python and then walked through the example and showed the calculations.

They were complete nonsense, not just the wrong divisor but told me to multiply by a number that is clearly wrong.

So it gave me duff code and then explained it with complete authority what it just made up.

This won’t do - if people start relying on this stuff then they will be making a massive mistake
 


ozzygull

ozzygull

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2003
4,164
Reading
How does this work then? AI takes everybody's job to make things that nobody can buy, because nobody has a job or any money. All the companies replacing their staff with AI will have not any one to buy their products.
 
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Justice

Justice

Dangerous Idiot
Jun 21, 2012
20,662
Born In Shoreham
dsr-burnley said:
That's handy. I've been struggling to get a builder to come and fix my wall. Now I can get a computer to do it! :)
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It will probably turn up late drink a cup of tea have a tut and say the jobs bigger than It thought. The good thing is it won’t ask for more money as apparently we won’t have any by then 😏
 




D

Dibdab

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2021
1,075
ozzygull said:
How does this work then? AI takes everybody's job to make things that nobody can buy, because nobody has a job or any money. All the companies replacing their staff with AI will have not any one to buy their products.
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The concept that is being discussed widely is that everyone will just get universal credit managed digitally to get things they need. I think the biggest issue is that people need jobs to have purpose and without that mental health issues will be off the scale.
 


ozzygull

ozzygull

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2003
4,164
Reading
Dibdab said:
The concept that is being discussed widely is that everyone will just get universal credit managed digitally to get things they need. I think the biggest issue is that people need jobs to have purpose and without that mental health issues will be off the scale.
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I know I am being pedantic as I have not read or watch all the scare videos about AI, but if what you are saying is true. Companies are going to replace all their staff with AI to save money, only to have to pay the government costs, so they can pay people universal credit.
 


tedebear

tedebear

Legal Alien
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
17,100
In my computer
What concerns / interests me is the use of AI for nefarious means and how it will be policed. For example in the US elections, how many social media accounts were created by bot, who then used AI to see what is the most “liked Trump support sentence”, and Posted that ad nauseam on the fake accounts.

There are people amongst us who would take that as “wow there is a massive support here“ and then vote in a specific way like sheep. Proving the Trump comment of “I like stupid people as they support me” or something like. Thus changing the outcome of an election for example. Thus changing the “society” we live in where we see his behaviours normalised as people are hoodwinked by a fake swell of support.

I’m sure that’s already happening, so in short yes, the scale of that impact on society though is the tricky question simply as people don’t realise the extent to which it is being used.
 








mejonaNO12 aka riskit

mejonaNO12 aka riskit

Well-known member
Dec 4, 2003
21,921
England
beorhthelm said:
people have been shocked by the evolution of LLMs and generative AI, and assume next level AGI is around the corner, unaware of the huge computational power needed for training and the experts dont know how to get from here to AGI. developers i work with, including in machine learning, are simply using it to shortcut some low level mundane processes. AI it doesn't know what to create, it cant translate user or business requirements to software designs, it cant debug, recognise and fix defects, it cant build the systems to run it on, it cant negotiate access to data or arrange user support, etc, etc.

AI is as transformational as 3D printing. it's great for prototyping, great for low skilled to output something useful, but not going to replace real engineering or output at industrial scale. the one way we'll see society change is when there surge of power stations built then abandoned when it's realised there's little use for this current generation of AI.
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Will it help people start sentences with capital letters?

Donald Trump GIF by Election 2016
 


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