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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%

  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%

  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%
  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


schmunk

schmunk

Why oh why oh why?
Jan 19, 2018
10,322
Mid mid mid Sussex
Bozza said:
I'm not talking about bookies, but exchanges which are a marketplace open to all. The only thing that moves the market are the participants.
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All exchanges do is open source the laying of bets to the general public in a direct capacity, rather than the indirect laying through the bookmaker who set the odds based on the general public's backing of other options. It doesn't change the fundamental operation of the market.
 




Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,211
Back in Sussex
Mellotron said:
I would argue turnout levels, turnout demographics (age, sex, previous affiliation etc) and things that are actual cold hard facts are better to be extrapolated from than some of Elon Musk's rich mates chucking £4m on specifically to help push a narrative.

To answer the second question, it's very difficult but I would put wide scale poll of polls as MORE reliable than betting, which as mentioned above is much more open to abuse for nefarious means (IMO).

Also, a poll is "What will you do yourself?" meanwhile betting is "what do you think will happen collectively?".
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None of those things will be known for some time yet, so are you saying that currently, as we sit here, there are absolutely no available indicators of the probability of outcome?

If that's the case, then the betting market is currently the best indicator of the likely outcome. Note: to be the relative best, something doesn't actually have to be very good in absolute terms.

@Papa Lazarou is a better pool player than me, but he's unlikely to make much of a wave in the world championships.

The thing is - if Trump does win - it doesn't mean the betting markets were right. If Harris wins, it doesn't mean the betting markets were wrong. I think this is where those who don't really understand betting lose the nuance.

The betting market only reflects probability at a moment in time based on all information/data available to market participants. If Harris does win, the markets will hav e gradually shifted in her favour over time. At the point she is declared the winner, the betting markets will have her at dead-cert odds.
 


crodonilson

crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,059
Lyme Regis
um bongo molongo said:
The thing many commentators miss in these elections - both sides of the pond - is that people are often voting AGAINST something rather than FOR something. The reason BoJo did so well is that Labour somehow managed to field an even worse leader. Starmer won because the Tories were a complete car crash. A lot of Americans detested Hilary Clinton. My worry in this instance is that many Americans are unhappy with the Biden administration/recent years of Democrat leadership, particularly the economy, and that’s why Trump will win.
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This is a very salient point, and it may be why Biden won last time, I don't think he was an outstanding candidate but people were tired of Trump and Covid probably played into his hands too as the electorate were always going to punish the incumbent after a thoroughly miserable year.

I don't know how much impact it had yesterday as I can't believe there are many undecided's remaining but I thought Kamala's closing star-studded event was a serious miscalculation, I recall Clinton doing similar in 2016 and Trump got the message out while she's mixing with all the celebrities gushing about here I'm here with the working people at his closing campaign events, and that message really resonated.
 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,211
Back in Sussex
schmunk said:
All exchanges do is open source the laying of bets to the general public in a direct capacity, rather than the indirect laying through the bookmaker who set the odds based on the general public's backing of other options. It doesn't change the fundamental operation of the market.
Click to expand...
Yes, yes it does.

A bookie will set their odds to suit their position. They may, for example, shorten the odds they offer for a market outcome to reduce bet volume coming their way. If another bookie is offering better odds, more punters will go to that other bookie. In extreme cases a bookie may refuse to take any more bets on a given outcome.

Anyway, for the reason in my last post, I'm going to stop Betting Chat now.

Suffice to say, betting markets will be something I keep an eye on as the night and following days go on. As was the case with the Brexit referendum, market momentum will indicate whether this is going to be a good outcome or a bad outcome.
 








crodonilson

crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,059
Lyme Regis
Bozza said:
Yes, yes it does.

A bookie will set their odds to suit their position. They may, for example, shorten the odds they offer for a market outcome to reduce bet volume coming their way. If another bookie is offering better odds, more punters will go to that other bookie. In extreme cases a bookie may refuse to take any more bets on a given outcome.

Anyway, for the reason in my last post, I'm going to stop Betting Chat now.

Suffice to say, betting markets will be something I keep an eye on as the night and following days go on. As was the case with the Brexit referendum, market momentum will indicate whether this is going to be a good outcome or a bad outcome.
Click to expand...

I do recall though in the last election early results coming through were good for Trump and I'm sure there will be some data to back this up but he shortened quite considerably into about 1.6/1.7 range IIRC from being outsider before election day certainly before I went to work on the day after the election so 7am UK time so early results and shifts in the markets even early tomorrow won't be the be all and end all.

EDIT: Below link shows how much the odds fluctuated in the 24 hours from about now last time.

 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,211
Back in Sussex
crodonilson said:
I do recall though in the last election early results coming through were good for Trump and I'm sure there will be some data to back this up but he shortened quite considerably into about 1.6/1.7 range IIRC from being outsider before election day certainly before I went to work on the day after the election so 7am UK time so early results and shifts in the markets even early tomorrow won't be the be all and end all.

EDIT: Below link shows how much the odds fluctuated in the 24 hours from about now last time.

Click to expand...
Exactly - the odds only reflect probability at a moment in time.

As more information becomes available then the odds change.

No betting market accepts a bet on an absolute dead-cert sure thing.
 




peterward

peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,236
Just watching CNN and their swing state election wall (assuming all red/blue states fall to normal sides).

Pennsylvania is absolutely key.

Of the 7 swing states, if Harris wins the blue wall, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania she has the minimum 270 and wins. and in all previous recent elections those 3 have fallen to same side who wins.

However, 2 of the earliest states likely to declare are Georgia and N Carolina, both with smallish Trump leads in polls.
If he wins those 2 as polls narrowly expect and then just Pennsylvania also, he is at minimum 270 and wins.

Pennsylvania isnt likely to declare for over 24 hours+ plus, and long after polls close in Georgia, N Carolina which will be reasonably soon tonight..... so its going to be super nervy few hours unless Harris can flip one of Georgia, N Carolina. If Trump wins both, its Pennsylvania or bust for democrats.
 
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US Seagull

US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,618
Cleveland, OH
I'd missed this. Trump has lost the white supremacist vote?

www.newsweek.com

Conservative influencer slams Donald Trump supporters: "It is a cult"

Nick Fuentes is among several conservative influencers and activists who once supported Trump but are now refusing to endorse him.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

Also "Conservative Influencer" is a hell of a way to describe the second most famous (after David Duke) white supremacist in the country.
 








schmunk

schmunk

Why oh why oh why?
Jan 19, 2018
10,322
Mid mid mid Sussex
US Seagull said:
I'd missed this. Trump has lost the white supremacist vote?

www.newsweek.com

Conservative influencer slams Donald Trump supporters: "It is a cult"

Nick Fuentes is among several conservative influencers and activists who once supported Trump but are now refusing to endorse him.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

Also "Conservative Influencer" is a hell of a way to describe the second most famous (after David Duke) white supremacist in the country.
Click to expand...
I'd not heard of him, but after a quick flick through Wikipedia - what a weirdo...

en.wikipedia.org

Nick Fuentes - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 


A

AstroSloth

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2020
1,369
nicko31 said:
Kid Rock endorse Trump, never heard of him but sounds like a nice chap

Click to expand...

Old post but this sums up Kid Rock

1730821927998.png
 




Thunder Bolt

Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Aug 18, 2009
67,798
Beside the seaside, beside the sea




Mellotron

Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,455
Brighton
Bozza said:
The betting market only reflects probability at a moment in time based on all information/data available to market participants. If Harris does win, the markets will hav e gradually shifted in her favour over time. At the point she is declared the winner, the betting markets will have her at dead-cert odds.
Click to expand...
You keep ignoring that betting markets in this instance are very very likely to have been intentionally swung to suit a narrative.

Why is this?
 








K

knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
13,100
Just got my USA and Canada jigsaw out. Finished Canada. I do it to try and learn the State Capitals. Always forget half of them within a few weeks.
I've placed Harrisburg, Lansing, Madison, Carson City, Phoenix, Atlanta and Raleigh. Stuck in Des Moines just in case. Juneau stays as it's a corner piece.
IMG_20241105_161146983.jpg
 


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