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[Politics] Donald Trump, US President Elect 2025
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 16,302
I guess that's my point, because I don't.
My quibble was with the fact I think you referred to it as the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen, which I disagree very strongly with, especially when we know there is a group looking to skew it in one direction intentionally.
schmunk
Well-used member
Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.
However:
Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*
Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated
* disregarding my post above. Ahem.
pb21
Well-known member
- Apr 23, 2010
- 6,736
Not really the case in this instance though. Apart from a recent bumb for Harris they have been drifting Trump's way for weeks.
And
What is the most reliable indicator of outcome then?
Edit: And, what is that most reliable indicator of outcome currently stating as the probability of each outcome happening?
I'm not talking about bookies, but exchanges which are a marketplace open to all. The only thing that moves the market are the participants.
nicko31
Well-known member
Trump share price up 12% yesterday, 14% today. What piece of data specifically is saying Trump is a shoe in?
What I do know is if you can move the markets and things go the other way there's a lot of money to be made
Meanwhile trending on X #harriswalz2024inalandslide
Things are nuts...
aftershavedave
Well-known member
Here's a betting cert: open another US Election thread and the original "owner" will have it closed within a couple of hours. NSC is a bizarre place these days, Oh for the days of sandwiches
BBassic
I changed this.
- Jul 28, 2011
- 13,208
It's funny the only time I even notice there's been a thread merge is when you pop up whining about it
I would argue turnout levels, turnout demographics (age, sex, previous affiliation etc) and things that are actual cold hard facts are better to be extrapolated from than some of Elon Musk's rich mates chucking £4m on specifically to help push a narrative.
To answer the second question, it's very difficult but I would put wide scale poll of polls as MORE reliable than betting, which as mentioned above is much more open to abuse for nefarious means (IMO).
Also, a poll is "What will you do yourself?" meanwhile betting is "what do you think will happen collectively?".
US Seagull
Well-known member
I did a democracy
pb21
Well-known member
- Apr 23, 2010
- 6,736
Meme stocks are a different kettle of fish though, and do fluctuate much more.
US Seagull
Well-known member
Nope. You are wrong.
You have to fill in bubbles on a FIVE PAGE ballot with 31 separate questions.
Ahh that makes sense, now i know why you asked for luck seems complicated
um bongo molongo
Well-known member
The thing many commentators miss in these elections - both sides of the pond - is that people are often voting AGAINST something rather than FOR something. The reason BoJo did so well is that Labour somehow managed to field an even worse leader. Starmer won because the Tories were a complete car crash. A lot of Americans detested Hilary Clinton. My worry in this instance is that many Americans are unhappy with the Biden administration/recent years of Democrat leadership, particularly the economy, and that’s why Trump will win.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,065
though US do not have access to betting that we assume in land of the actual free. in this case the betting markets are wide open to outside influence, not indicative of public.
Yes I can, but I don't take the threat seriously. And countries in NATO should pay the required amount.