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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,096
Goldstone
She is in Lichtmans system, the incumbent is deemed the governing white house party rather than the individual candidate.

But if the system is any good, it should allow for differences between someone who is the sitting president, and someone who isn't.
 




Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
17,770
Fiveways


I'm seeing people interpret these numbers in both directions, to suit their inherent biases. Some suggesting that this is most of the rural vote gone and that a lot left is Urban and therefore more likely to support Harris. There's also the unknown of exactly how Independents are going to break.

It is less of an early mail in vote lead than 2020, but then Trump was actively telling his supporters to NOT vote early in 2020, and he is doing the opposite this time (because he needs a lead early on so he can declare victory again).

The most startling thing in those numbers (to me, at least) is the high % of Independents.
 










Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,526
The arse end of Hangleton
In the meantime you may enjoy this on Amazon - I may watch it again myself later

@Crawley Dingo will love it given Gibson has just endorsed Trump. Obviously he and Trump will over look the fact that Gibson is an immigrant from Australia.
 


FamilyGuy

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
2,512
Crawley
The two main concerns for me is the immediate cessation of support for Ukraine, and the diversion of support to Israel.

Trump backs Putin and Netanyahu. What a strategy.

And meanwhile he will complete his main purpose as president, which is to pardon himself from all the charges he is facing and and is about to face, and elevate a couple more nutters to the Supreme Court to ensure his elevation to untouchable status proceeds without issues.
Trump backs anyone that he thinks will be of benefit to him (irrespective of whether he's right or not), and then slags them off and drops them (or says "I don't know him" or "he's an idiot") as soon as he's proven to be wrong, which lets face it, is pretty much all the time..
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,096
Goldstone
It does. The Dem's lost key #3: Incumbent seeking re-election. Next question?

He doesn't say that. He says he's only got 4 keys to Trump, ignoring the fact that key 3 goes to neither party. Unless you've got a different link showing how he divides the keys?
 






sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,267
Hove
Professor Allan Lichtman who is claimed to be the Nostradamus of election predicting and who some cite as getting 9 of last 10 elections right, but in reality is 10/10 (called Gore in 2000 and recount blocked by Supreme court handing it to George W), has predicted Harris will win and he reaffimed that a week ago.

Doesnt use any polling, but has a system based on 13 keys, and for a challenger to win from incumbent theyd need at least 6 keys, Trump has 4

This from September


This 1 week ago


But has he added a "Putin Interference" Key since last time ?
 






Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,067
Faversham
@Crawley Dingo will love it given Gibson has just endorsed Trump. Obviously he and Trump will over look the fact that Gibson is an immigrant from Australia.
Born in the USA. Emigrated to Australia age 12.

Massive arsehat, though.
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,523
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Whatever happens tomorrow, I hope at some point Pete Buttigieg gets a shot, he seems a very reasonable guy (unfortunately as a gay man he probably hasn’t got a chance)

 
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Springal

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2005
24,779
GOSBTS
Ah Farage.... where DOES he get all his free time and flight funding from 🤷🏼‍♂️.

I see it's yet another Trump rally with zero empty seats 👍
Foreign interference in an election 🤷🏻‍♂️
 








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