[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

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Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%

  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%

  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%
  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,813
Bodian said:
I think the media will be very wary of 'calling' the states as they normally do, for fear of retribution if they are wrong, so we might all have to wait until the official results.
Click to expand...
Remember 2016?

They got it very wrong - we went to bed in our house expecting to wake up to a Hilary win and it was the orange man who won!

Polls tend to overstate Democratic support
www.pewresearch.org

Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations

Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org

“Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.”

“Donald Trump is polling better than in 2016 and 2020, either because the pollsters are compensating for past errors or because he’s emerged as a stronger candidate than expected.”

www.telegraph.co.uk

Who will win the US election? Our experts’ final predictions

With just one week until the election, Trump’s campaign has hit its stride. But do our experts think this is enough to clinch the race?
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 






B

Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,138
Cumbria
Zeberdi said:
Remember 2016?

They got it very wrong - we went to bed in our house expecting to wake up to a Hilary win and it was the orange man who won!

Polls tend to overstate Democratic support
www.pewresearch.org

Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations

Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org

“Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.”

“Donald Trump is polling better than in 2016 and 2020, either because the pollsters are compensating for past errors or because he’s emerged as a stronger candidate than expected.”

www.telegraph.co.uk

Who will win the US election? Our experts’ final predictions

With just one week until the election, Trump’s campaign has hit its stride. But do our experts think this is enough to clinch the race?
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
Click to expand...
Yes. But that's pre-vote polling. Not the media calling the states, which they do from a combination of early result tallies, exit polling and so on.
 


K

knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
13,100
Zeberdi said:
As I said fcuk off and go and troll another thread

Leave this one to people that actually want to discuss the issues.
Click to expand...
You started it. 🥱
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.
 


Madafwo

Madafwo

I'm probably being facetious.
Nov 11, 2013
1,717
Bodian said:
I think the media will be very wary of 'calling' the states as they normally do, for fear of retribution if they are wrong, so we might all have to wait until the official results.
Click to expand...
Rolling news channels will have hours to fill, and there will be exit polls so they're not going to keep those to themselves.
 




drew

drew

Drew
NSC Patron
Oct 3, 2006
23,568
Burgess Hill
knocky1 said:
You started it. 🥱
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.
Click to expand...
Have you really gone the extra mile to contact others who don't post anymore to find out their reasons. Sterling service.
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,813
knocky1 said:
You started it. 🥱
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.
Click to expand...
Started what?

I had a difference of opinion with another poster and made a point of saying he was entitled to his point of view, you trolled me with a post comparing me to Trump with verbal diarrhoea :shrug:

As I said, go and troll another thread - this is one of the best threads on NSC so stop trying to derail it.
 


Mellotron

Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,455
Brighton
Zeberdi said:
With every information that is available to us one has to conclude it is on a knife-edge.
Click to expand...
No you don’t. You can conclude whatever you want. There is no wrong or right in how you read it, it’s merely your interpretation of things.

Yours is that it is on a knife edge - others might not believe the same.

It’s all good. :thumbsup:
 




Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
52,982
Goldstone
Marty McFly said:
According to this article a reasonable indication could be apparent between 10pm and 11.30pm Eastern - this would be around 3am-4.30am in the UK. Might as well get some sleep, and perhaps get up earlier than normal (presuming you have a relatively normal sleep pattern)

Click to expand...

Thanks. I'll try and forget about it and see what it looks like at 7am.

I feel for Ukrainians, they'll have to stay up all night.
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,813
Mellotron said:
No you don’t. You can conclude whatever you want. There is no wrong or right in how you read it, it’s merely your interpretation of things.

Yours is that it is on a knife edge - others might not believe the same.

It’s all good. :thumbsup:
Click to expand...
Actually you are right.

There is no conclusion to be made - I guess what I meant is that we/well most of us at least are on a knife edge ourselves because we don’t know the conclusion - for all we know Trump or Harris could be leading by a significant majority 🤷‍♂️

And yes - it’s all good - everyone‘s opinion matters 👍
 
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US Seagull

US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,618
Cleveland, OH
www.theguardian.com

Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll

In shocking result that could reshape the race, ex-president falls three points behind in a state he won in 2016 and 2020
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Ann Selzer is one of the most highly respected polsters in the country and the authority in Iowa.

If Iowa is within the margin of error, Trump is going to be in for a humiliating night on Tuesday.
 






Mellotron

Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,455
Brighton




Motogull

Motogull

Todd Warrior
Sep 16, 2005
10,439
Well then. The last few days.

Many non religious types will be praying for a certain outcome. A few others will be making sure they have a plentiful supply of 'hand lotion', tissues and wet wipes for screen cleaning.
 


Mellotron

Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,455
Brighton
Bold Seagull said:
Did you see they reported another pollster in Iowa had Trump 9 points ahead!
Click to expand...
He won by 8 points last time round, so Seltzer’s is certainly more of an outlier, however her polls are also A* rated and she is pretty much always within 2-3 points.

Who knows?!
 




nwgull

nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,532
Manchester
That poll has certainly shifted the betting market. Not quite to the same extent as the debate, and Trump is still odds-on, but it’s more than just market noise.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
55,868
Faversham
Eric the meek said:
I'm off to bed.

One final thought. Everyone has a voice. Let others use theirs. After all, this is a forum....
Click to expand...
What's you problem? If someone else posts something that doesn't stop your 'voice'.

Perhaps you have nothing to say :shrug:
 


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