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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%

  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%

  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%
  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


BadFish

BadFish

Huge Member
Oct 19, 2003
18,238
North Carolina Supporter said:
The real problem in America is that our primary process favors the extremes in both parties. This leaves a vacuum in the middle. There are no moderates to support. We used to have “Rockefeller Republicans” and “Blue Dog Democrats” that were fiscally to the right but more to the left on social issues. They are all but gone. Over half of Trump’s voters are not supporting him- they are voting against the left wing candidate. So many people “in the middle” are weary after years of inflation, porous borders, higher taxes, etc etc- they “hold their nose” and vote for Trump. I live in one of the few “purple states” - that reliably elects Democrats (blue states) and Republicans (red states) in the same election. I see cognitive dissonance on a daily basis… otherwise intelligent people “protesting” by voting against their own interests and/or ethics, morals, beliefs… it’s beyond comprehension. The untold story of this election is “how could a political party become so disengaged from the voters to lose to a convicted con man?” THAT needs to be honestly debated… without immediately falling into diatribes. It’s not the neo-nazi voters (all .000001%) it’s not the ignorant rednecks (10%) - it’s the 25% of the electorate that vote against the democrats no matter who is running. The left has absolutely enraged millions of educated Americans that are not nazis, racists, or dumb. It’s really worrisome how much anger is here in the US… sorry to ramble! Bourbon 🥃 now safely in hand - cheers from North Carolina
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Deleting my post as I read yours again a bit more thoroughly, it makes sense and some interesting points.

I agree with the question about why people see Trump as a viable alternative to the usual politicians. He is different, and different could be good. but from where I am standing he is worse... Far worse.
 
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Albion my Albion

Albion my Albion

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 6, 2016
19,700
Indiana, USA

Johnson, McConnell call on Harris to tone down rhetoric​



(click on MSN)

Let's see Trump calls Kamala "shit." and Kamala is supposed to turn down the rhetoric?

Harris will never be treated the same as Trump. Why should she even try?
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,979
North Carolina Supporter said:
The real problem in America is that our primary process favors the extremes in both parties. This leaves a vacuum in the middle. There are no moderates to support. We used to have “Rockefeller Republicans” and “Blue Dog Democrats” that were fiscally to the right but more to the left on social issues. They are all but gone. Over half of Trump’s voters are not supporting him- they are voting against the left wing candidate. So many people “in the middle” are weary after years of inflation, porous borders, higher taxes, etc etc- they “hold their nose” and vote for Trump. I live in one of the few “purple states” - that reliably elects Democrats (blue states) and Republicans (red states) in the same election. I see cognitive dissonance on a daily basis… otherwise intelligent people “protesting” by voting against their own interests and/or ethics, morals, beliefs… it’s beyond comprehension. The untold story of this election is “how could a political party become so disengaged from the voters to lose to a convicted con man?” THAT needs to be honestly debated… without immediately falling into diatribes. It’s not the neo-nazi voters (all .000001%) it’s not the ignorant rednecks (10%) - it’s the 25% of the electorate that vote against the democrats no matter who is running. The left has absolutely enraged millions of educated Americans that are not nazis, racists, or dumb. It’s really worrisome how much anger is here in the US… sorry to ramble! Bourbon 🥃 now safely in hand - cheers from North Carolina
Click to expand...
Good to hear from actual voters on the ground especially in one of the key swing states.

Unless one actually lives in America, it’s hard to fully comprehend and appreciate conditions that drive people in their voting preferences.

I think a lot of what you say makes sense and paints a pretty accurate picture.

Neither Democrats nor Republicans have made any real effort to embrace the moderate/swing voters in the past decade - both parties instead holding on to their entrenched respective support base with hordes of middle ground voters feeling disinterested and disenfranchised.

You may find this article interesting - I pulled it out earlier while pondering a question HWT raised on here a few days ago as to why Harris isn’t running away with this election.

You should be able to access it without a paywall


 


Albion my Albion

Albion my Albion

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 6, 2016
19,700
Indiana, USA
Crawley Dingo said:
As none of you have been at all conciliatory, posting in bad faith or admitting errors there is F all chance that I am going to show any fealty even if you did have a credible case which you don't.

Go and pound sand.
Click to expand...

Obviously the kind of person you want to help support supporting his candidate.
 






Eeyore

Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
26,006
North Carolina Supporter said:
The real problem in America is that our primary process favors the extremes in both parties. This leaves a vacuum in the middle. There are no moderates to support. We used to have “Rockefeller Republicans” and “Blue Dog Democrats” that were fiscally to the right but more to the left on social issues. They are all but gone. Over half of Trump’s voters are not supporting him- they are voting against the left wing candidate. So many people “in the middle” are weary after years of inflation, porous borders, higher taxes, etc etc- they “hold their nose” and vote for Trump. I live in one of the few “purple states” - that reliably elects Democrats (blue states) and Republicans (red states) in the same election. I see cognitive dissonance on a daily basis… otherwise intelligent people “protesting” by voting against their own interests and/or ethics, morals, beliefs… it’s beyond comprehension. The untold story of this election is “how could a political party become so disengaged from the voters to lose to a convicted con man?” THAT needs to be honestly debated… without immediately falling into diatribes. It’s not the neo-nazi voters (all .000001%) it’s not the ignorant rednecks (10%) - it’s the 25% of the electorate that vote against the democrats no matter who is running. The left has absolutely enraged millions of educated Americans that are not nazis, racists, or dumb. It’s really worrisome how much anger is here in the US… sorry to ramble! Bourbon 🥃 now safely in hand - cheers from North Carolina
Click to expand...
The President doesn't hold that much power though do they ?

I mean, I can fully understand why folk might vote Republican for Congress. But Trump as President ? Unfathomable.
 


Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,265
Goldstone
North Carolina Supporter said:
The left has absolutely enraged millions of educated Americans that are not nazis, racists, or dumb. It’s really worrisome how much anger is here in the US
Click to expand...

What did they do to enrage you so?
 


Albion my Albion

Albion my Albion

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 6, 2016
19,700
Indiana, USA
Eeyore said:
I mean, I can fully understand why folk might vote Republican for Congress. But Trump as President ? Unfathomable.
Click to expand...

1729899686614.png
 




Klaas

Klaas

I've changed this
Nov 1, 2017
2,667
North Carolina Supporter said:
The real problem in America is that our primary process favors the extremes in both parties. This leaves a vacuum in the middle. There are no moderates to support. We used to have “Rockefeller Republicans” and “Blue Dog Democrats” that were fiscally to the right but more to the left on social issues. They are all but gone. Over half of Trump’s voters are not supporting him- they are voting against the left wing candidate. So many people “in the middle” are weary after years of inflation, porous borders, higher taxes, etc etc- they “hold their nose” and vote for Trump. I live in one of the few “purple states” - that reliably elects Democrats (blue states) and Republicans (red states) in the same election. I see cognitive dissonance on a daily basis… otherwise intelligent people “protesting” by voting against their own interests and/or ethics, morals, beliefs… it’s beyond comprehension. The untold story of this election is “how could a political party become so disengaged from the voters to lose to a convicted con man?” THAT needs to be honestly debated… without immediately falling into diatribes. It’s not the neo-nazi voters (all .000001%) it’s not the ignorant rednecks (10%) - it’s the 25% of the electorate that vote against the democrats no matter who is running. The left has absolutely enraged millions of educated Americans that are not nazis, racists, or dumb. It’s really worrisome how much anger is here in the US… sorry to ramble! Bourbon 🥃 now safely in hand - cheers from North Carolina
Click to expand...
I'm sorry, but what is 'the left' of which you speak? Because when I hear Americans talk about marxists, communists and the far left, and then look at the democrat party, I think, 'Huh??'
Interested to hear also what it is that 'the left' has done to 'enrage' millions of people.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,291
Faversham
Randy McNob said:
I think it's a brilliant move by the democrats which was planned from the beginning, a side step which has bamboozled the Trump camp.

Rather than 2 white old fogies who don't offer any real choice, now a younger, female woman of colour. Trump doesn't stand a chance
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If only that were true.

Trump is filth on a shitty stick, but getting the message across to the poor simple folk who trust him, and the rich folk who expect to be tossed morsels after the coronation, is not going to be achieved by the left giving each other high fives and warm embraces.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,291
Faversham
Klaas said:
I'm sorry, but what is 'the left' of which you speak? Because when I hear Americans talk about marxists, communists and the far left, and then look at the democrat party, I think, 'Huh??'
Interested to hear also what it is that 'the left' has done to 'enrage' millions of people.
Click to expand...
It is a complete myth.

There was a half wit who used to post on here, now banned, who referred to anyone who fell outside his narrow circle as 'Trained Marxists' - a term he read on a fake news site.

That's what we are up against.
 




US Seagull

US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,690
Cleveland, OH
Harry Wilson's tackle said:
It is a complete myth.

There was a half wit who used to post on here, now banned, who referred to anyone who fell outside his narrow circle as 'Trained Marxists' - a term he read on a fake news site.

That's what we are up against.
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Exactly. It's not just that the Republicans have moved far to the right, they've also pushed this bullshit narrative that the left are the ones who are extreme. It's simply not true. See above with Trump claiming that Harris DEMANDS executing babies.

I mean, FFS.
 


North Carolina Supporter

North Carolina Supporter

American Seagull
NSC Patron
Mar 26, 2023
105
Chapel Hill, North Carolina USA
Triggaaar said:
What did they do to enrage you so?
Click to expand...
I am “the left” in America. I am trying to explain to (mostly) British- how Trump could possibly win the presidency. It is due to the fact that the majority of moderates have voted against Kamala Harris. NOT in favor of Trump- but against the Democratic policies. The surprising factor to observers like me- 40 years of voting- is the animosity that many “in the middle” have for the Democrats. their hatred of certain left-wing policies has overcome their own personal ethics and morals - they will vote for a spray-tan con man over a law abiding former prosecutor… bot because they like Trump- but because they hate the policies that Kamala Harris will enact or protect. It’s delusional- on a massive scale, but that is what is happening to the former “moderate republicans” and “conservative democrats” … this shift is not being covered by the US press
 


North Carolina Supporter

North Carolina Supporter

American Seagull
NSC Patron
Mar 26, 2023
105
Chapel Hill, North Carolina USA
Klaas said:
I'm sorry, but what is 'the left' of which you speak? Because when I hear Americans talk about marxists, communists and the far left, and then look at the democrat party, I think, 'Huh??'
Interested to hear also what it is that 'the left' has done to 'enrage' millions of people.
Click to expand...
In the US, the “left” is oversimplified to mean anyone who is a Democrat. Anyone who believes in progressive tax policies, global warming, gun control, equal pay for equal work, more abortion access, etc.

The “far left” are the fringe parties in the US- Green and Socialists - maybe 2% of the voters combined. (The grand total of Marxist and communists in the US is a fraction of a fraction.)

The Right is anyone who reliably votes Republican. They want lower taxes first and foremost, more military spending is next, Second Amendment protection, closed borders to immigration, less environmental rules, more restrictions on abortions, etc.

30 years ago, the US was nearly equally divided- 1/3rd liberal or “left” 1/3rd moderate or middle and 1/3rd conservative or “right” … that has all changed. The extremes on the right and left have taken over - the moderates have lost nearly every primary. The middle has no one to represent us.

My point is that Trump is winning over more of the middle than anyone anticipated… and the reason for this is NOT because they like Trump. The reason is that many moderates have grown weary of the left. My point is this- half of Trump’s support is really just people who are protesting the other side- not supporting Trump. They don’t like him- they just want to show their anger at the left for the open borders, higher taxes, bigger government, etc. Trump found an audience with these divisive issues… it’s the great chasm in America. trump has been successful at dividing the country because he thinks he can get 51% of the vote … sadly, this is what is happening… I fear his strategy is working.
 




BadFish

BadFish

Huge Member
Oct 19, 2003
18,238
North Carolina Supporter said:
I am “the left” in America. I am trying to explain to (mostly) British- how Trump could possibly win the presidency. It is due to the fact that the majority of moderates have voted against Kamala Harris. NOT in favor of Trump- but against the Democratic policies. The surprising factor to observers like me- 40 years of voting- is the animosity that many “in the middle” have for the Democrats. their hatred of certain left-wing policies has overcome their own personal ethics and morals - they will vote for a spray-tan con man over a law abiding former prosecutor… bot because they like Trump- but because they hate the policies that Kamala Harris will enact or protect. It’s delusional- on a massive scale, but that is what is happening to the former “moderate republicans” and “conservative democrats” … this shift is not being covered by the US press
Click to expand...
What are the policies they dislike so much?

I am asking in good faith here because it is hard to understand from the outside what she is doing that is so bad that Trump* and project 2025 is preferable.

* for context his long lists of negatives have been shared over and over on here, with his supporters seemingly unable to communicate any positives.
 


BadFish

BadFish

Huge Member
Oct 19, 2003
18,238
North Carolina Supporter said:
In the US, the “left” is oversimplified to mean anyone who is a Democrat. Anyone who believes in progressive tax policies, global warming, gun control, equal pay for equal work, more abortion access, etc.

The “far left” are the fringe parties in the US- Green and Socialists - maybe 2% of the voters combined. (The grand total of Marxist and communists in the US is a fraction of a fraction.)

The Right is anyone who reliably votes Republican. They want lower taxes first and foremost, more military spending is next, Second Amendment protection, closed borders to immigration, less environmental rules, more restrictions on abortions, etc.

30 years ago, the US was nearly equally divided- 1/3rd liberal or “left” 1/3rd moderate or middle and 1/3rd conservative or “right” … that has all changed. The extremes on the right and left have taken over - the moderates have lost nearly every primary. The middle has no one to represent us.

My point is that Trump is winning over more of the middle than anyone anticipated… and the reason for this is NOT because they like Trump. The reason is that many moderates have grown weary of the left. My point is this- half of Trump’s support is really just people who are protesting the other side- not supporting Trump. They don’t like him- they just want to show their anger at the left for the open borders, higher taxes, bigger government, etc. Trump found an audience with these divisive issues… it’s the great chasm in America. trump has been successful at dividing the country because he thinks he can get 51% of the vote … sadly, this is what is happening… I fear his strategy is working.
Click to expand...

It is astonishing to me that immigration numbers, higher taxes and bigger government are enough to turn moderate and intelligent people into the arms of trump.

For me it is surely more to do with the bullshit they are being fed that actual policies.

One by one:

Immigration - it was Trump's republicans that thwarted Bidens bill to sort out the southern border.

Tax - My understanding is that Trump's tax policy favoura the 1%, surely this means that someone has to pick up the slack. Is this not the middle and working classes.

Big Government - I am not convinced the the validity of this and need convincing that it makes much different to peoples actual lives.

Don't get me wrong I am not suggesting you are wrong that these are the reasons that people are going to vote for him. I just think that they are bullshit ones, especially if one considers the shit show that Trump is threatening to bring with him.
 


Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,265
Goldstone
North Carolina Supporter said:
I am “the left” in America.
Click to expand...
Yes but it was you as an American, what the left has done to enrage Americans?


North Carolina Supporter said:
I am trying to explain to (mostly) British- how Trump could possibly win the presidency. It is due to the fact that the majority of moderates have voted against Kamala Harris. NOT in favor of Trump- but against the Democratic policies. The surprising factor to observers like me- 40 years of voting- is the animosity that many “in the middle” have for the Democrats. their hatred of certain left-wing policies has overcome their own personal ethics and morals - they will vote for a spray-tan con man over a law abiding former prosecutor… bot because they like Trump- but because they hate the policies that Kamala Harris will enact or protect. It’s delusional- on a massive scale, but that is what is happening to the former “moderate republicans” and “conservative democrats” … this shift is not being covered by the US press
Click to expand...

Yes, but what are these certain left wing policies that Harris will enact or protect that are enraging Americans?

North Carolina Supporter said:
They don’t like him- they just want to show their anger at the left for the open borders, higher taxes, bigger government, etc.
Click to expand...

Ok, so those are the reasons you're giving.

So you've been convinced that the US has an open border? Anyone can come, right?

Reality check: Since 1992, the U.S. has quadrupled the number of Border Patrol agents — from less than 5,000 to nearly 20,000 today.
 
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Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,979
North Carolina Supporter said:
I am “the left” in America. I am trying to explain to (mostly) British- how Trump could possibly win the presidency. It is due to the fact that the majority of moderates have voted against Kamala Harris. NOT in favor of Trump- but against the Democratic policies. The surprising factor to observers like me- 40 years of voting- is the animosity that many “in the middle” have for the Democrats. their hatred of certain left-wing policies has overcome their own personal ethics and morals - they will vote for a spray-tan con man over a law abiding former prosecutor… bot because they like Trump- but because they hate the policies that Kamala Harris will enact or protect. It’s delusional- on a massive scale, but that is what is happening to the former “moderate republicans” and “conservative democrats” … this shift is not being covered by the US press
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t bother. NSC doesn’t do nuance well.😉 All to quick to polarise a debate.

The NYT article I posted above reflects the points you are making well.

My Aunty and Uncle who live in Michigan are lifelong ‘conservative’ Democrats - they feel much as you do (but at least hate Trump even more although that is because as Jews, they fear the repercussions of white supremacy gaining foothold in main stream politics.)

( From the article I posted above)
Political analysts say the Republicans and Democrats ”have prioritized the wishes of their most intensely devoted voters — who would never vote for the other party — over the priorities of winnable voters who could go either way.” Both parties “treat narrow victories like landslides and wave away narrow defeats, somehow seeing both as confirmation of their existing strategies.”

The Democrats are leaving a growing working class demographic behind in this election - they don’t want to hear about Trump’s threat to democracy, about Trump centralising power or Trump’s sexual proclivities - they want to know how a Harris administration would improve their economic outlook according to the Guardian:

“Among blue-collar voters, a group that leans Republican, the democratic threat message was a whopping 14.4 points underwater relative to the average support for Trump’s messages. And among more liberal-leaning service and clerical workers, it was also the least popular message, finishing only 1.6 percentage points ahead of the Trump average. Even among professionals, the most liberal of the bunch and the group that liked the message the best, the message barely outperformed Trump’s messages.”

“Among independents – an imperfect proxy for nonpartisan voters – the strong populist message was best received, while the democratic threat message was least favored. Only Democrats strongly preferred the democratic threat message, and even then it was among their least favorite.

All of this suggests that the messaging pivot is a big mistake.”

If Harris loses, [and I am seriously now thinking she certainly might] the Guardian writer, Dustin Guastella, says it’ll be because the campaign and the candidate represent a party that is now fundamentally alien to many working people – “a party that has given up on mobilizing working people around shared class frustrations and aspirations. A party incapable of communicating a simple, direct, progressive economic policy agenda. A party so beholden to a contradictory mix of interests that, in the effort to appease everyone and offend no one, top strategists have rolled out a vague, unpopular and uninspiring pitch seemingly designed to help them replay the results of the 2016 election.”

www.theguardian.com

To win, Harris should talk more about working-class needs and less about Trump | Dustin Guastella

Our polling shows that the best way to defeat Trump is offer a compelling economic platform that puts working families first
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I am resigned to Trump winning this election now - he is an unstoppable force simply because he is making the most noise to a moderate working class swing electorate who are responding to his populist messaging; who want to know how the next leader of the US will reenergise the car and steel industry, end offshoring of American manufacturing to put jobs back on the table and who puts American working families first.
 
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Peteinblack

Peteinblack

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jun 3, 2004
4,147
Bath, Somerset.
Zeberdi said:
I wouldn’t bother. NSC doesn’t do nuance well.😉 All to quick to polarise a debate.

The NYT article I posted above reflects the points you are making well.

My Aunty and Uncle who live in Michigan are lifelong ‘conservative’ Democrats - they feel much as you do (but at least hate Trump even more although that is because as Jews, they fear the repercussions of white supremacy gaining foothold in main stream politics.)

( From the article I posted above) Political analysts say the Republicans and Democrats ”have prioritized the wishes of their most intensely devoted voters — who would never vote for the other party — over the priorities of winnable voters who could go either way.” Both parties “treat narrow victories like landslides and wave away narrow defeats, somehow seeing both as confirmation of their existing strategies.”

The Democrats are leaving a growing working class demographic behind in this election - they don’t want to hear about Trump’s threat to democracy, about Trump centralising power or Trump’s sexual proclivities - they want to know how a Harris administration would improve their economic outlook:

“Among blue-collar voters, a group that leans Republican, the democratic threat message was a whopping 14.4 points underwater relative to the average support for Trump’s messages. And among more liberal-leaning service and clerical workers, it was also the least popular message, finishing only 1.6 percentage points ahead of the Trump average. Even among professionals, the most liberal of the bunch and the group that liked the message the best, the message barely outperformed Trump’s messages.”

“Among independents – an imperfect proxy for nonpartisan voters – the strong populist message was best received, while the democratic threat message was least favored. Only Democrats strongly preferred the democratic threat message, and even then it was among their least favorite.

All of this suggests that the messaging pivot is a big mistake.”

If Harris loses, [and I am seriously now thinking she certainly might] the Guardian writer, Dustin Guastella, says it’ll be because the campaign and the candidate represent a party that is now fundamentally alien to many working people – a party that has given up on mobilizing working people around shared class frustrations and aspirations. A party incapable of communicating a simple, direct, progressive economic policy agenda. A party so beholden to a contradictory mix of interests that, in the effort to appease everyone and offend no one, top strategists have rolled out a vague, unpopular and uninspiring pitch seemingly designed to help them replay the results of the 2016 election.”

www.theguardian.com

To win, Harris should talk more about working-class needs and less about Trump | Dustin Guastella

Our polling shows that the best way to defeat Trump is offer a compelling economic platform that puts working families first
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I am resigned to Trump winning this election now - he is an unstoppable force simply because he is making the most noise to a moderate working class swing electorate who are responding to his populist messaging; who want to know how the next leader of the US will reenergise the car and steel industry, end offshoring of American manufacturing to put jobs back on the table and who puts American working families first.
Click to expand...
Yet if Harris and the Democrats talk about 'the working-class', this would be denounced as Marxist, and as hostility towards the middle-class or big business.

Just as over here in the UK, the Labour Party is criticised if it refers explicitly to the working-class ('outdated class politics, divisive politics, anti-business', etc), but it's OK for the Tories to masquerade as 'the Party of the working-class', and accuse Labour of having abandoned the working-class in favour of virtue-signalling 'identity politics'.

The other thing I can't get my head around is the claim/fear - cited above by previous posters - that Harris and the Democrats will increase State intervention, yet it is the Republicans who are urging bans or further restrictions on abortions, closing or defunding family-planning clinics, imposing bans on 'controversial' books in school or public libraries, blocking access to online 'adult entertainment' sites, etc. All of these are forms of State control and censorship - but imposed by the Republican (and Christian) Right.

I guess the Republicans, like many Tories and Reform UK supporters here in the UK, want freedom for themselves and people exactly like them (they wallow in an imagined sense of victimhood), but discipline, conformity and punitive policies to be imposed on the people they don't like.
 
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