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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%

  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%

  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%
  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Withdean South Stand

Withdean South Stand

Well-known member
Mar 2, 2014
646
The higher the turnout, the better it is for the Democrats. That's my general sense - Trump's people are spread out a mile wide, but an inch thick (no offence intended!). I think Democratic support is going to blow away the minority of voters who are Trumpnomatterwhat.

Fate would have it that I'm going to be watching the election night coverage with a big right winger, a passionate Trump fan. I am very confident I'm going to enjoying the coverage - but it won't all be plain sailing. A two horse race always gives hope to the one who shouldn't even be in the race.
 




G

Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
16,068
Nothing says 'no-one's got a facking clue' like posts from people saying Trump is definitely going to win, closely followed by further posts saying Harris is a shoo-in!
 


Withdean South Stand

Withdean South Stand

Well-known member
Mar 2, 2014
646
Greg Bobkin said:
Nothing says 'no-one's got a facking clue' like posts from people saying Trump is definitely going to win, closely followed by further posts saying Harris is a shoo-in!
Click to expand...
It's just a question of turnout in my opinion. Harris has everything logical on her side, but you just don't know if people are motivated to vote for her or not. Trump's people are incredibly well motivated and the Republican party is much better at turning out their vote. Republican support is baked in and a huge number of their voters will not admit/talk about it publically, which makes the polling tougher.

If the Democrats get out the vote, they'll win. Georgia's early voting numbers are incredible and it's logical to believe that's in net favour of the Democrats, but it might not be and it might not be enough proportionally to win the state overall. I hope it is, and I hope that Pennsylvania trends towards Harris as well because that's game over.

If Trump becomes president again, he won't see out his term. He'll either be forced out, die or resign the presidency in disgrace and JD Vance will end up 48th president. Which would be a total mess.
 


bhafc99

bhafc99

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2003
7,456
Dubai
Withdean South Stand said:
Fate would have it that I'm going to be watching the election night coverage with a big right winger, a passionate Trump fan. I am very confident I'm going to enjoying the coverage - but it won't all be plain sailing. A two horse race always gives hope to the one who shouldn't even be in the race.
Click to expand...

Not a two-horse race for MAGAs though. In fact it’s only even a race if Trump wins:
- Trump wins: fair election, 100% legit, not one single fake vote.
- Trump loses: stolen election, 100% dodgy, not one single true vote.
 






seagullsovergrimsby

seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,947
Crap Town
Withdean South Stand said:
It's just a question of turnout in my opinion. Harris has everything logical on her side, but you just don't know if people are motivated to vote for her or not. Trump's people are incredibly well motivated and the Republican party is much better at turning out their vote. Republican support is baked in and a huge number of their voters will not admit/talk about it publically, which makes the polling tougher.

If the Democrats get out the vote, they'll win. Georgia's early voting numbers are incredible and it's logical to believe that's in net favour of the Democrats, but it might not be and it might not be enough proportionally to win the state overall. I hope it is, and I hope that Pennsylvania trends towards Harris as well because that's game over.

If Trump becomes president again, he won't see out his term. He'll either be forced out, die or resign the presidency in disgrace and JD Vance will end up 48th president. Which would be a total mess.
Click to expand...
If they enact Project 2025 Shady Vance wouldn't be President but Der Fuhrer.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,241
Faversham
Radio 5 did a good piece live from Georgia today (the state, not the (state of a) nation).

Lots of dull sensible folk declaring a lukewarm preference for Trump, based around fairly nuanced economical considerations, notwithstanding the man's nutty utterances.

I could easily fulminate about how could anyone ever consider voting for that disgrace of a man, but millions recently voted for Farage in the UK, and Farage is much worse than Trump as far as I can see. So I will not bother troubling my echo chamber.

It seems that 'vote Trump and get Vance' seems to be a popular mantra for many there.

I expected Trump to beat Hilary, and expect he will beat Harris. Sad, but there it is.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,241
Faversham
peterward said:
Bout time, its bloody true.

www.theguardian.com

Kamala Harris agrees that Donald Trump is a fascist: ‘Yes, we can say that’

Vice-president responds to suggestion by interviewer Charlamagne Tha God that Republican rival represents fascism
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Oh dear. I suspect that has probably just lost her 5 million votes. Enough to swing it.

Does she really think such an utterance will persuade Republican voters to switch sides, or entice floating votes away from Trump?

Have she no political nous?
 




Commander

Commander

Arrogant Prat
NSC Patron
Apr 28, 2004
13,599
London


US Seagull

US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,669
Cleveland, OH
Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Oh dear. I suspect that has probably just lost her 5 million votes. Enough to swing it.

Does she really think such an utterance will persuade Republican voters to switch sides, or entice floating votes away from Trump?

Have she no political nous?
Click to expand...
FFS - Trump calls her not only worse, but also the same. Repeatedly. Even yesterday where he confusingly called her a communist, a Marxist and a fascist.

I guess he gets a pass since he has no idea what any of the words mean?
 


Commander

Commander

Arrogant Prat
NSC Patron
Apr 28, 2004
13,599
London
US Seagull said:
FFS - Trump calls her not only worse, but also the same. Repeatedly. Even yesterday where he confusingly called her a communist, a Marxist and a fascist.

I guess he gets a pass since he has no idea what any of the words mean?
Click to expand...
I think that is exactly the point.
 














Kalimantan Gull

Kalimantan Gull

Well-known member
Aug 13, 2003
13,458
Central Borneo / the Lizard
peterward said:
There's a lot of commentary in US, including republican pollsters, that many of the GOP backed polls are vastly overinflated...... and for one specific reason.

When Harris wins they're going to claim election fraud again, and try another all or nothing coup.
Click to expand...
Yeah, there was a recent poll of Pennsylvania by a reputable pollster that was sponsored by a Trump-supporting organisation. The first did the poll and the second applied a Likely-voter screen, to determine who was likely to vote, and it came in Trump +1, which was the headline.

However - the Likely voter screen that they applied reduced the number of Philadelphia voters in the sample from 115 to just 12, a projected 9% turnout. In Philadelphia. One of the most Democratic parts of the country. Philadelphia voters will make up over 10% of the PA vote, but here they were just 1% of this poll. (The result from all registered voters in this poll was Harris+4)

There is laughable polling like this everywhere, and yet this poll is included within the polling averages.
 


Withdean South Stand

Withdean South Stand

Well-known member
Mar 2, 2014
646
Harry Wilson's tackle said:
I expected Trump to beat Hilary, and expect he will beat Harris. Sad, but there it is.
Click to expand...
I think the difference is that this time, voting for Trump means something. In 2016, Hillary was incredibly and historically unpopular and Trump was the "change" candidate. It could have been brilliant, there was a lot of potential and the economy was good so in theory, a businessman empowering other businessmen could have been amazing for the country.

But it wasn't. And there was a deadly pandemic which was handled outrageously badly. And all the obvious racism from the office. The failed attempts to pass legislation. The awful response to natural disasters. Everything he did in his day to day, really.

There is real enthusiasm for Kamala's campaign and for Democrats across the board, partly because of how extreme the Republicans are on the big issues. But partly because of who Kamala is, what she represents and who she can entice to vote. It's totally different in my opinion and there's no excuse for Trump winning again (and I think he wants to win even less than he did in 2016!).
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,241
Faversham
US Seagull said:
FFS - Trump calls her not only worse, but also the same. Repeatedly. Even yesterday where he confusingly called her a communist, a Marxist and a fascist.

I guess he gets a pass since he has no idea what any of the words mean?
Click to expand...
Yes. It isn't fair, is it?
 




peterward

peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,289
Commander said:
It isn't true, and I think that is a big mistake from her.
Click to expand...
I beg to disagree. Trumps rhetoric, desires for autocracy and using national guard against any dissenting "enemies within" opponents has all the hallmarks of fascism.

Whether that's a mistake to verbalise it, I dunno :shrug:
 




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