@Zeberdi has been scrupulously careful to post facts without taking sides. A lesson for some is that making critical comments is not taking sides. Whereas relentlessly throwing opprobrium at one side is pointless and tedious.
With what seems the unconditional backing and funding from the US Israel will regularly get home in wins in numerous conflicts in the region. But the chance of winning the peace gets less and less every time.
Yes, of course, though not previously known to have a doctrine explicitly calling for the death of non-believers.
Hitherto,.... normally,..... to date,..... traditionally.... take your pick.
Agree with this.
)
I’m curious how Israel can take out Iran nuclear capabilities without ground troops. Is it possible to do this precision weapons without major riskAgree with this.
Unfortunately- There is only one direction this is going in while Israel has the UK and US as strong allies willing to defend Israel against retaliation - in other words, Netanyahu can do what he likes under the protection of the US - unfortunately that is not going to change - which is why, when you have the Prime Minister of Israel behaving like a recalcitrant child, the US and UK are powerless to stop him. The question is, how much do they really want to?
Isreal is the West’s main sphere of influence in the ME - despite normalising relations with the Gulf States, Russia and China are heavily invested in the ME - it is a fine balance.
People ask why are we backing Israel or using our military capabilities to defend Israel when it is Israel ramping up the violence? It really rankles with most people that Israel is dragging the West apparently unwillingly into a conflict.
Or is the West truly unwilling? Surely heavy sanctions and a more robust withdrawal of arms could have stopped Netanyahu?
The former prime minister, tipped to take over from Netanyahu in 2026, said last night,: “This is the greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East.” He was arguing that Israel should go after Iran’s nuclear facilities, in order to “fatally cripple this terrorist regime”.
Iran’s nuclear facilities are a big fear for the West too - Iran‘s enrichment programme is coming close to developing enough weapons grade uranium (WGU) to build a strong nuclear deterrent. We really don’t want that but since Trump tore up the Nuclear deal and imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, we have no formal way of enforcing compliance with nuclear non proliferation.
The West absolutely do not want the Ayatollah of Iran or for that matter Hezbollah, armed with a nuclear arsenal that could obliterate Israel, or even force the West out of the region. We have seen how hogtied the West has been in dealing with Ukraine and how Russia has weaponised the nuclear deterrent so successfully, NATO dare not take out any direct action against Russia.
- ‘Iran can produce more weapon-grade uranium (WGU) since the IAEA’s last report in May 2024 due to increased stocks of enriched uranium and a greatly enlarged advanced centrifuge capacity.
- Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough WGU, taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU per weapon, for nine nuclear weapons in one month, 12 in two months, 13 in three months, 14 in four months, and 15 in five months.’
Just one possible reason why the British and the US are seemingly slack and ambivalent about the possibility of being drawn into a deeper conflict in the region. Because it might be in their interest to do so.
(Sorry about the long post - feel free not to read - it’s too complicated and nuanced to squeeze this into 5 lines but it’s just food for thought
source
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-august-2024#:~:text=With%20Iran's%20stock%20of%2060,WGU%20in%20about%20four%20weeks.
Do not be sorry, sums it up for me, I am right here on the highlighted section for those reasons you stated.Agree with this.
Unfortunately- There is only one direction this is going in while Israel has the UK and US as strong allies willing to defend Israel against retaliation - in other words, Netanyahu can do what he likes under the protection of the US - unfortunately that is not going to change - which is why, when you have the Prime Minister of Israel behaving like a recalcitrant child, the US and UK are powerless to stop him. The question is, how much do they really want to?
Isreal is the West’s main sphere of influence in the ME - despite normalising relations with the Gulf States, Russia and China are heavily invested in the ME - it is a fine balance.
People ask why are we backing Israel or using our military capabilities to defend Israel when it is Israel ramping up the violence? It really rankles with most people that Israel is dragging the West apparently unwillingly into a conflict.
Or is the West truly unwilling? Surely heavy sanctions and a more robust withdrawal of arms could have stopped Netanyahu?
The former prime minister, tipped to take over from Netanyahu in 2026, said last night,: “This is the greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East.” He was arguing that Israel should go after Iran’s nuclear facilities, in order to “fatally cripple this terrorist regime”.
Iran’s nuclear facilities are a big fear for the West too - Iran‘s enrichment programme is coming close to developing enough weapons grade uranium (WGU) to build a strong nuclear deterrent. We really don’t want that but since Trump tore up the Nuclear deal and imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, we have no formal way of enforcing compliance with nuclear non proliferation.
The West absolutely do not want the Ayatollah of Iran or for that matter Hezbollah, armed with a nuclear arsenal that could obliterate Israel, or even force the West out of the region. We have seen how hogtied the West has been in dealing with Ukraine and how Russia has weaponised the nuclear deterrent so successfully, NATO dare not take out any direct action against Russia.
- ‘Iran can produce more weapon-grade uranium (WGU) since the IAEA’s last report in May 2024 due to increased stocks of enriched uranium and a greatly enlarged advanced centrifuge capacity.
- Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough WGU, taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU per weapon, for nine nuclear weapons in one month, 12 in two months, 13 in three months, 14 in four months, and 15 in five months.’
Just one possible reason why the British and the US are seemingly slack and ambivalent about the possibility of being drawn into a deeper conflict in the region. Because it might be in their interest to do so.
(Sorry about the long post - feel free not to read - it’s too complicated and nuanced to squeeze this into 5 lines but it’s just food for thought
source
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-august-2024#:~:text=With%20Iran's%20stock%20of%2060,WGU%20in%20about%20four%20weeks.
Thanks for that [condescending?) advice, where do you think I should start?
I'm not a betting man, nor a military general, but my personal view is that if Hamas had any real intention of using the Israeli hostages as bargaining chips they would have played that card by now. A year of Gaza carnage would have bought most to the negotiating table, but seems not the Hamas terrorists way of progressing?
Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected ceasefire deals and opportunities to free more hostages. He doesn't care.
Israel can’t do it alone. Iran is a massive Country and these facilities would mostly be deep underground afaia.
thebulletin.org
www.middleeasteye.net
Yep until the US election is done and dusted they won’t be doing too much. Really need to try and improve relations with IranIsrael can’t do it alone. Iran is a massive Country and these facilities would mostly be deep underground afaia.
Since my earlier post today, the idea that this is building up to a conflict where Western allies with Israel take out Iran’s nuclear facilities seems to have become a ‘thing’ in MSN this evening for the first time, it might be on the agenda.
I think we should be under no doubt at all, that if this conflict in Gaza and now Lebanon, is a deliberate pre-curser to the West doing this, or even just mission creep - Israel has started so lets carry on (which I suggested might be the case back last October) - then we in the UK would be heading full on into war. The mission won’t be ‘defending Israel, nor will it be helping to get rid of Hezbollah in Lebanon (that won’t get the support of the UK public) , I believe it will be attacking Iran - ‘destroying Iran’s WMDs’. Sounds familiar?
The only peaceful resolution to prevent a war with Iran now (because this is gathering its own momentum, I think), would be if Iran came back to the table and signed a new Nuclear Non-Proliferation Deal with the US. That won’t happen if Trump wins the Election because he is pro-Netanyahu and Netanyahu imo has shown no indication that he wants peace with Hezbollah or Iran - but every indication he wants them gone.
A really interesting article which will answer your question specifically and how difficult it would be
Iran vs. Israel redux: The enormous difficulties and ramifications if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear sites
After Israel's attack, the Iranian regime may see the actual weaponization of its nuclear program as the only option left that can guarantee its security.
