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[Football] Long range shots in decline









jcdenton08

jcdenton08

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Oct 17, 2008
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Si Gull said:
Interesting article on the decline of long range shots and possible reasons behind it.

News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/extra/7ruba7shs4/the-slow-death-of-the-screamer
Long range goals: Is shooting from outside the box a dying art in football?
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Articles like this have popped up for quite a few seasons now, as the sport becomes more and more analytical. Same with corners, long goal-kicks and so on.

Long shots will always be a thing, but if you look at the data you can see why 9/10 an extra pass is preferable to a long range shot.

Ain’t nobody going to stop Enciso having a few sighters, xG be damned…
 




Zeberdi

Zeberdi

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Oct 20, 2022
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Interesting theories (I would have said Klopp and Pep’s influence on the modern game has impacted the xG from long range shots more than anything.)

Personally I don’t know whether goals resulting from highly technical skill on the ball and the fast, short passing that we see in the modern gegenpressing game are more exiting/better football to watch than Hell Mary shots from 30 yards by a number 9 ahead of the pack but where the chance of scoring is much lower. Perhaps before the introduction of VAR and the 2005 changes to the offside rule, I might have chosen the former but as it is, it would be a relief in some ways to go back to a style of football where there are more shots on goal from a long way out rather than waiting an age for VAR to disentangle what occurred in a packed penalty area.
 




Washie

Washie

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Jun 20, 2011
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Zeberdi said:
Interesting theories (I would have said Klopp and Pep’s influence on the modern game has impacted the xG from long range shots more than anything.)

Personally I don’t know whether goals resulting from highly technical skill on the ball and the fast, short passing that we see in the modern gegenpressing game are more exiting/better football to watch than Hell Mary shots from 30 yards by a number 9 ahead of the pack but where the chance of scoring is much lower. Perhaps before the introduction of VAR and the 2005 changes to the offside rule, I might have chosen the former but as it is, it would be a relief in some ways to go back to a style of football where there are more shots on goal from a long way out rather than waiting an age for VAR to disentangle what occurred in a packed penalty area.
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This is why there will always be arguments in football as everyone sees things differently. I am 100% the opposite. I'd rather have the long VAR pauses so I can have more technical skill and fast short passing.
 


Nobby Cybergoat

Nobby Cybergoat

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Jul 19, 2021
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jcdenton08 said:
Long shots will always be a thing, but if you look at the data you can see why 9/10 an extra pass is preferable to a long range shot.
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I just wonder if this one of those where they are looking at the data too much

If it's just down to long shots going in v getting the ball closer I can see why the data suggests pass. But does the data include the possibility of more random stuff resulting from the shot? Shots going way wide deflecting in as OG's? Ball hitting someone's hand and a pen given? Maybe a sending off coming out of that as well? Corners won? Random second balls won in good positions?

I'd also more tentatively suggest that you're more likely to get turned over (with lots of men forward to score the more tippy tappy goals) than you are if you just smash one earlier on

I'm not advocating 100% shoot on sight of course. I just wonder if there's been group think in the coaching community on this and we'll see a return to the mean in the coming seasons
 






PILTDOWN MAN

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They interviewed a few players about it on Sky. Most said it’s the ball especially at the Euros. Very hard to keep down.
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

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Washie said:
This is why there will always be arguments in football as everyone sees things differently. I am 100% the opposite. I'd rather have the long VAR pauses so I can have more technical skill and fast short passing.
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Not 100% - I said ‘in some ways’ and ‘I’m not sure’ 😉

I definitely think the game is more ‘beautiful’ to watch from a style point of view when the whole team are moving together pressing high but there is also something very thrilling and uncomplicated about banging long shots into the back of the net out of no where - they definitely have a higher wow factor for me than a walk in (VAR and stupid offside rules aside).
 


jcdenton08

jcdenton08

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Nobby Cybergoat said:
I just wonder if this one of those where they are looking at the data too much

If it's just down to long shots going in v getting the ball closer I can see why the data suggests pass. But does the data include the possibility of more random stuff resulting from the shot? Shots going way wide deflecting in as OG's? Ball hitting someone's hand and a pen given? Maybe a sending off coming out of that as well? Corners won? Random second balls won in good positions?

I'd also more tentatively suggest that you're more likely to get turned over (with lots of men forward to score the more tippy tappy goals) than you are if you just smash one earlier on

I'm not advocating 100% shoot on sight of course. I just wonder if there's been group think in the coaching community on this and we'll see a return to the mean in the coming seasons
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Some good points, well made. Regarding the second paragraph, most data looks at goals or chances directly resulting from long range shots which include deflections/OG’s. Same with corners, where a knock down/failed clearance in the first phase of play resulting in a goal counts as being from a corner.

We might well see a change, but for now it does make sense to go with the numbers.
 
















Sid and the Sharknados

Sid and the Sharknados

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Nobby Cybergoat said:
But does the data include the possibility of more random stuff resulting from the shot?

I'd also more tentatively suggest that you're more likely to get turned over (with lots of men forward to score the more tippy tappy goals) than you are if you just smash one earlier on
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Funnily enough, my first thought when I read that question in your post was that you're more likely to give up possession and concede by shooting early, and then I read the latter paragraph coming to the exact opposite conclusion. :lolol:
 






H

Han Solo

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May 25, 2024
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Sid and the Sharknados said:
Didn't @Han Solo (I think under whatever his last account was called) suggest that this trend had started to reverse in the last season or two?
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I had no data backing it up afaik - it was just a feeling that we were seeing a change , not least from Manchester City where players (particularly Foden) appeared to take more shots from outside the box.

It really will depend on how teams defend. As it stands, with most teams pressuring high, there's no real reason to shot from 30 meters when you can create fast paced attacks and get into the box. But for tight low defences, I think the art of shooting from distance will re-emerge.

It doesn't matter if you score from distance or not, but you can change behaviour from your opponenents if they know they need to push out and stop players from taking free shots.
 


A1X

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Further confirms my thinking that football these days is trying to be too clever for it's own good, and it sucks the joy out of the game. Percentage play, tiki-taka, xG, false 9s and all that bollocks.
 


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