- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,188
So here we go again for the EIGHTH season in the Premier League.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away. The bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Palace, but not West Ham or above.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. As in the last two seasons I have added the Europe tracker as well. This is targeted at 60 points, so in addition to the above we also need to win at home and draw away to West Ham, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea and Spurs
As the traditional top six are now back in the top sides this may improve the accuracy. Less chance of an under performer this season I'd argue? Palace, sadly, may over perform?
The season is slightly more weighted in favour of the first half with 22 expected points in the first half, 18 in the second half. There is also an earlier divergence between the graph for staying up and Europe (last season the first 6 games were the same).
Last season I guessed we would get 60 points, I was woefully wrong in the end. I'll say mid 50s this time. Hard to justify us finishing above the traditional six plus Newcastle and Villa, so 9th might be as good as it gets?
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away. The bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Palace, but not West Ham or above.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. As in the last two seasons I have added the Europe tracker as well. This is targeted at 60 points, so in addition to the above we also need to win at home and draw away to West Ham, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea and Spurs
As the traditional top six are now back in the top sides this may improve the accuracy. Less chance of an under performer this season I'd argue? Palace, sadly, may over perform?
The season is slightly more weighted in favour of the first half with 22 expected points in the first half, 18 in the second half. There is also an earlier divergence between the graph for staying up and Europe (last season the first 6 games were the same).
Last season I guessed we would get 60 points, I was woefully wrong in the end. I'll say mid 50s this time. Hard to justify us finishing above the traditional six plus Newcastle and Villa, so 9th might be as good as it gets?
