Will Brown 'bottle it'?

[Papa Lazarou]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7028677.stm

So, with the Tories scoring well in the polls after their successful party conference, will Gordon Brown bottle it and put off a general election?

If so, what will be the effect upon the public view of him?

Discuss

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

I think the Tories have been very clever with this - making it seem like they are setting the agenda and that GB is dancing to their tune.

It is a bluff though. They don't want the election now. They want the GB honeymood period well and truly over.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

DKM - I totally agree that it 'started' as a bluff, as the Tories didn't feel they were ready (the whole reason for the PM calling one now), but I think that the current poll results may have changed everyone's minds; I think the Tories feel they could win it now, and I guess Labour might feel a little reticent to go with the parties apparently so close.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

I've not seen the polls - but the Tories have done well for themselves this week. I am not sure a lot has changed over the last fortnight though. There still seems a massive gulf between the traditional tory party and DC. Are we any closer to knowing what he believes ? Anyway - this is a schism that the Labour party will drive a carriage and horses through.

I don't belive GB is a gambler - so I think he will wait. Something he may regret.

 

[Gwylan]

I don't belive GB is a gambler - so I think he will wait. Something he may regret.

As Callaghan did in 1979. There was a lot of speculation that he'd call an election in the autumn of '78 and he held off - to be hit by the 'Winter of Discontent'

What amazes me is that Brown has allowed himself to get into this position. If he doesn't call it now, he does look a bit of a bottler, which might cost him. It was really naive of him.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

There can be a poll tomorrow, next week, next year, it wont make any difference to me. I wont be voting for Cameron.

 

[Buzzer]

As Callaghan did in 1979. There was a lot of speculation that he'd call an election in the autumn of '78 and he held off - to be hit by the 'Winter of Discontent'

What amazes me is that Brown has allowed himself to get into this position. If he doesn't call it now, he does look a bit of a bottler, which might cost him. It was really naive of him.

Agree. He would win if it were called now and he'd have a mandate (his own mandate) for the next 5 years - together with pulling the biggest con trick since John Major's back to basics shenanigans - fooling the electorate into thinking that he was never responsible for the things that people are so upset about now.

Definite echoes of the Tories in the 1990s.

I think that there are several factors playing on his mind though

1. Scotland. He needs jock Labour MPs to win and the SNP could well give them a battering. Last thing he wants is a resurgent SNP in Westminster and Holyrood.
2. The Lib Dems are fast becoming an irrelevance, similar to their standing up until the mid-80s. This is very good news for the Tories who will probably sweep the board down here in the South and in the non-urban areas.
3. Whatever the result of the election, Labour will have fewer MPs and will not be able to rely on block-voting to get flagship legislation through for the next few years. More rebellions, more incriminations. Not what Gordon wants
4. The UKIP are now seen for what they really are. A one-trick pony. They won't split the Tory vote like they previously did. After the next election, the UKIP will probably collapse in on itself and stagnate and their supporters return to the Tory fold. Incidentally, has the BNP EVER contested a seat where UKIP are too or are UKIP just BNP-lite?

Interesting times

 

[Papa Lazarou]

There can be a poll tomorrow, next week, next year, it wont make any difference to me. I wont be voting for Cameron.

Well, thanks for that.

 

[desprateseagull]

lies, damn lies, and statistics.. only one poll matters, its called an election.

does Mr B HAVE to call one, anyway?

i am totally fed up with all the coverage/spin already, even before any campaigns start 'officially'..

 

[desprateseagull]

and I think that Screaming Lord Sutch fella deserves a chance..

oh hold on, he's dead. Boris Johnson it is then.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

Well, thanks for that.

Ok, I'll answer the question.

I think Brown and his advisors have got this one totally wrong. He raised expectation, so yes if he waits then accusations will be made that he bottled it.

The idea of a November election is ridiculous. Its cold, dark and probably wet. Hardly the conditions that will make people want to go out and Vote. This in itself will cost Brown votes.

Even if Brown did win, I suspect that it will be with a much reduced majority. But what of the election after? When will he call that one. 4 years time in November 2011, but that will have the same problems of dark evenings etc. May 2011? But that will only be another 3 1/2 year term. Or does he go in May 2012, which is 4 1/2, but risks being boxed in.

Thats why this November snap poll was ridiculous from the start. He could have waived all the nonsence away, kept the machine of Govt ticking over and called it in May next year.

This has caused him trouble now and will continue to cause him trouble

 

[Stinky Kat]

In Hastings the tories have put up a lady candidate who has made all the right noises about hospital closures, got herself a column in the local rag and been generally pleasent to everybody even our Labour MP. Add in the boundary changes which mean Hasting now takes in voters from affleunt Rye and I can see the Tories winning here.

But that is no real change as Nu labour are just the Tories in disguise anyway.

POUNDS before PEOPLE - the motto of todays politicans

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Ok, I'll answer the question.

I think Brown and his advisors have got this one totally wrong. He raised expectation, so yes if he waits then accusations will be made that he bottled it.

The idea of a November election is ridiculous. Its cold, dark and probably wet. Hardly the conditions that will make people want to go out and Vote. This in itself will cost Brown votes.

Even if Brown did win, I suspect that it will be with a much reduced majority. But what of the election after? When will he call that one. 4 years time in November 2011, but that will have the same problems of dark evenings etc. May 2011? But that will only be another 3 1/2 year term. Or does he go in May 2012, which is 4 1/2, but risks being boxed in.

Thats why this November snap poll was ridiculous from the start. He could have waived all the nonsence away, kept the machine of Govt ticking over and called it in May next year.

This has caused him trouble now and will continue to cause him trouble

Thanks for the reasoned response. So, despite the possible loss of face, it's probably in GB's interest to hold off an election at present.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

No doubt this is fixtures - but Labour in Shoreham have put up Tony Benns grand-daughter and who is still at school .......................... they must think they have no chance of getting in.

 

[Hiney]

As Callaghan did in 1979. There was a lot of speculation that he'd call an election in the autumn of '78 and he held off - to be hit by the 'Winter of Discontent'

What amazes me is that Brown has allowed himself to get into this position. If he doesn't call it now, he does look a bit of a bottler, which might cost him. It was really naive of him.

Exactly.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

I had to laugh this morning when they were going on about "the brown dilemma" sounds like the decision whether to fart or not after a night of beer and curry.

I have a sneaky feeling he will still go for it, apart from inheritance tax the tories have not really said anything new.

 

[SULLY COULDNT SHOOT]

Straight afte the tory conference it2s normal for Tory figure sot be up but as was pointed oput in the press this morning it'^s not bene stolen form Labour, it's coem about becuse of th fall in Liberal vote.

Labour will win the next election but it might be closer than before... and that would be good news for the UK, keep the right party in power but keep them on their toes. Brown will have to deliver more than spin.

 

[nail-Z]

Straight afte the tory conference it2s normal for Tory figure sot be up but as was pointed oput in the press this morning it'^s not bene stolen form Labour, it's coem about becuse of th fall in Liberal vote.

Labour will win the next election but it might be closer than before... and that would be good news for the UK, keep the right party in power but keep them on their toes. Brown will have to deliver more than spin.

I think you need a new keyboard.

 

[nwgull]

I had to laugh this morning when they were going on about "the brown dilemma" sounds like the decision whether to fart or not after a night of beer and curry.

I have a sneaky feeling he will still go for it, apart from inheritance tax the tories have not really said anything new.

what, and risk pebble dashing his Y-fronts?

 

[Don't get me started]

Countless tax rises , Iraq, Spin, Survellance society, people bailing out of the state education system to go private, National health service a joke (in my limited dealings with it over the last 10 years it seems worse than ever) all our tax money blown on god knows what, pensions depleted, generally we have had our legs lifted for the last 10 years. State telling us what we can and cant do.

But hang on we now find it was nothing to do with him so thats OK then.

He is as bad as Blair with his Iraq trick this week.

Boot him out hes a con man.

The tories could not do any worse than this maniac. hopefully he doesn't call an election but I think you will find the economy going south during the next 2 years so he will get it out the way now and try to worm his way through it in time for the next one.

Rant over but I do hate him