Peterborough could be postponed again!

[chimneys]

Just been on Metcheck. Tuesday from 3am to 6pm 52 mm of rain predicted. Virtually never seen that much rain forecast in such a space of time on Metcheck.

And at the time of the match 35 mph winds and sleet (will feel like minus 4 degrees!)!

I appreciate weather changes rapidly at present, but not looking good!

 

[the hitman]

Papa?

 

[Frutos]

Papa?

Nicole?

 

[Lord Bracknell]

The current Met Office "Advisory of severe or extreme weather" for Brighton & Hove on Tuesday is this:-

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of southern England and Wales on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it moves eastwards. There is the potential for around 5 to 10, perhaps locally 15cm of snow.

Issued at: 1139 Sat 7 Feb


That looks to me like nothing more than a forecast of a regular rainfall.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Oddly the Met Office have issued a warning for snow here early Tuesday...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

Which seems highly unlikely in view of the 850hpa temperatures forecast.

The forecast however, IS for a lot of rain Monday to Tuesday... from a low pressure running along the channel.

This GFS chart shows that for London there is up to 15mm of rain forecast per 6 hour period for about 24 hours.

(It's also worth noting that some of the runs go for a return to very cold conditions later on )

 

[chimneys]

I know from your postings on here you are a glass half full kind of bloke Lord B, but when does "There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event " translate into "nothing more than a forecast of a regular rainfall"?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I know from your postings on here you are a glass half full kind of bloke Lord B, but when does "There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event " translate into "nothing more than a forecast of a regular rainfall"?

I think that stems from the Met Office covering themselves... they do have access to additional model output, but from what I can see there's very little chance of snow down here.

Sad really, as were we to have colder air in place prior to the arrival we would end up with easterly gales and blizzards.

The problem we have is that the ground down here is pretty sodden already, so by Tuesday we will have a risk of flooding, particularly if the rainfall levels happen as per the GFS forecast.

 

[chimneys]

I think that stems from the Met Office covering themselves... they do have access to additional model output, but from what I can see there's very little chance of snow down here.

Sad really, as were we to have colder air in place prior to the arrival we would end up with easterly gales and blizzards.

The problem we have is that the ground down here is pretty sodden already, so by Tuesday we will have a risk of flooding, particularly if the rainfall levels happen as per the GFS forecast.

I'm not worried about snow PL, but the 80 mm of rain predicted on Metcheck as of now for the 24 hours Monday 6pm to Tuesday 6pm. Its waterlogging I'm fearful of!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I'm not worried about snow PL, but the 80 mm of rain predicted on Metcheck as of now for the 24 hours Monday 6pm to Tuesday 6pm. Its waterlogging I'm fearful of!

Same here... the pitch looked pretty ropey at the last home match... it's going to be water-logged by Tuesday... if we get 3 inches of rain!

 

[Taybha]

Ile wait til it gets dark b4 i post my in depth darky type forecast

 

[Lord Bracknell]

I know from your postings on here you are a glass half full kind of bloke Lord B, but when does "There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event " translate into "nothing more than a forecast of a regular rainfall"?

As a transport operator, I have spent the last ten days or so with my eye on the Met Office Severe Weather Warning pages. The phrase "a moderate risk of a severe weather event" (as the most severe warning in place for a particular locality) has consistently been used in forecasts of an event which turned out not to be at all troublesome.

It's only when the risk becomes more serious than "moderate" that the people in my line of business have to plan around the likelihood of transport services being disrupted.

Once they start reporting a "serious risk" of 3 inches of rain in Brighton & Hove, I'll start thinking about the possibility that we might have a problem.

 

[chimneys]

As a transport operator, I have spent the last ten days or so with my eye on the Met Office Severe Weather Warning pages. The phrase "a moderate risk of a severe weather event" (as the most severe warning in place for a particular locality) has consistently been used in forecasts of an event which turned out not to be at all troublesome.

It's when the only risk becomes more serious than "moderate" that the people in my line of business have to plan around the likelihood of transport services being disrupted.

Once they start reporting a "serious risk" of 3 inches of rain in Brighton & Hove, I'll start thinking about the possibility that we might have a problem.

Noted, but do you consider that 80mm/3 inches of rain in the preceding 24 hours could put the Posh game in jeopardy? Its just you seem to be dismissing any possibility of the game being in doubt from your initial post on this thread. And yes, I know we are still 80 odd hours away and the medium range forecasts arent always right but surely its got to be a distinct possibility.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Noted, but do you consider that 80mm/3 inches of rain in the preceding 24 hours could put the Posh game in jeopardy? Its just you seem to be dismissing any possibility of the game being in doubt from your initial post on this thread. And yes, I know we are still 80 odd hours away and the medium range forecasts arent always right but surely its got to be a distinct possibility.

The only caveat i'd add at this stage is that the GFS model is notorious for overdoing the intensity of low pressure systems and rainfall, and Metcheck use GFS alone.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Noted, but do you consider that 80mm/3 inches of rain in the preceding 24 hours could put the Posh game in jeopardy? Its just you seem to be dismissing any possibility of the game being in doubt from your initial post on this thread. And yes, I know we are still 80 odd hours away and the medium range forecasts arent always right but surely its got to be a distinct possibility.

3 inches of rain in 24 hours always makes Withdean unplayable.

I'm just questioning whether there is a real likelihood of this happening. On the basis of the information source that I've found to be very reliable over the past ten days, I see no reason at this stage to be seriously expecting that amount of rain.

But as you say, things change.

 

[herecomesaregular]

Nicole?

man, i used to fancy that girl when i was younger..

 

[Taybha]

Cant think why

 

[Stoichkov]

The only caveat i'd add at this stage is that the GFS model is notorious for overdoing the intensity of low pressure systems and rainfall, and Metcheck use GFS alone.

All this speculation and talk of GFS models & Met Office output is premature until US has stuck his head out of his Southwick window and furnished NSC with his forecast.

 

[chidgull]

Latest from the BBC weather :
Monday
A cold and frosty start. Most of the United Kingdom will be dry with sunny spells and a few coastal wintry showers. Southern counties of England and Wales will see strong winds with heavy rain, sleet and snow developing.

Tuesday
A cold and frosty start to another cold day with many areas dry and bright with some sunshine. A few wintry showers likely around coasts. Windy in southeast as early rain sleet and snow clears.

Game on !

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Chin up folks, there's always somebody worse off.

I saw the Eastbourne Borough team bus at Oxford services this afternoon, and on politely enquiring with a couple of their players & officials how they'd got on, was advised that their game at Altrincham was postponed at 1.30pm today, as the team actually arrived at the ground.

They were well pleased, as you can imagine

 

[SirDouglasLoft]

Chin up folks, there's always somebody worse off.

I saw the Eastbourne Borough team bus at Oxford services this afternoon, and on politely enquiring with a couple of their players & officials how they'd got on, was advised that their game at Altrincham was postponed at 1.30pm today, as the team actually arrived at the ground.

They were well pleased, as you can imagine

My Grandad went, he got all the way up there, and had to turn around and come back.