I've just gone through our remains fixtures and reckon we'll get to 86 points. Will that get us automatic promotion?
In last 10 seasons, points won by 2nd team ranged from 79 to 93. On 5 occasions, 2nd team has earned 86 or less, 5 times more.
So 86 is right on cusp historically as to whether it is enough. My instinct is that the top 5 are so competitive this season that 86 probably will be enough, but who knows.
In last 10 seasons, points won by 2nd team ranged from 79 to 93. On 5 occasions, 2nd team has earned 86 or less, 5 times more.
So 86 is right on cusp historically as to whether it is enough. My instinct is that the top 5 are so competitive this season that 86 probably will be enough, but who knows.
Why do previous seasons have any bearing? Just spread current points out and our projected 86 points will be short by 5 points. Have to beat hull and burnley.
That doesn't work, as you are just taking all teams in the current positions and working out points per game and then saying that's exactly the same points per game ratio they will finish up with! So obviously Brighton will still finish behind Hull and Middlesboro as their points per game ratio are currently higher than ours!
Applying this logic you might as well finish the season now, as according to your calculations no-one will deviate from their current standard...
My logic is precisely the opposite of what you are saying, someone (hopefully Brighton) will perform better than expected, and will pick up points where not expected.Applying your logic no one will perform better either.
I'm just saying people are a bit deluded if they think 86 is enough.
5 very competitive teams this year when it is usually 3.
90/91 will get us second given our shocking goal difference.