Hung parliament or a coalition?

[Tony Meolas Loan Spell]

Bearing in mind whats going on at the moment, if there was a general election, do you see this happening?

The UK general election of February 1974 was held on 28 February 1974. It was the first of two United Kingdom general elections held that year, and the only election since the Second World War not to produce an overall majority in the House of Commons for the winning party, instead producing a hung parliament. The incumbent Conservative government of Edward Heath polled the most votes by a small margin, but the Tories were overtaken in terms of Commons seats by Harold Wilson's Labour Party due to the decision by Ulster Unionist MPs not to take the Conservative whip. After failed negotiations between Heath and Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe, Heath resigned and Wilson returned for his second spell as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He would call another election in October of the same year.

This election saw Northern Ireland diverging heavily from the rest of the UK, with all twelve MPs elected being from local parties, following the decision of the Ulster Unionists to withdraw support from the Conservative Party in protest over the Sunningdale Agreement. It also saw the first Plaid Cymru MPs to be elected in a general election, in Wales (they had previously won a by-election).

 

[The Large One]

Similar.

I can see the Tories gaining the most seats by a small margin, but Labour and the Lib Dems forming a coalition government.

Nick Clegg will be Home Secretary and Vince Cable the Chancellor of the Exchecquer.

 

[bigc]

Similar.

I can see the Tories gaining the most seats by a small margin, but Labour and the Lib Dems forming a coalition government.

Nick Clegg will be Home Secretary and Vince Cable the Chancellor of the Exchecquer.

Alan Johnson PM?

That's the only way I can see Labour managing not to be destroyed.

 

[The Large One]

Alan Johnson PM?

That's the only way I can see Labour managing not to be destroyed.

This Alan Johnson thing is weird. Where the gollyjosh did he come from?

Can't see him being the next Labour leader. My money would be on David Milliband.

Also, can't see Labour being destroyed, mainly because of the lack of trust there still is in the current opposition.

 

[clippedgull]

This Alan Johnson thing is weird. Where the gollyjosh did he come from?

Can't see him being the next Labour leader. My money would be on David Milliband.

Also, can't see Labour being destroyed, mainly because of the lack of trust there still is in the current opposition.

Johnson would have the support of the unions, which could be a telling factor.

Milliband had a chance to usurp Gordon Brown a few months back and was either loyal or a bottle job!

But I think Brown will cling on until the voters speak.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Alan Johnson is the only one with a charisma similar to Tony Blair. He is probably Labour's only hope of winning the next election. Other than that they might be lucky if the Lib Dems gain more seats and thus form a coalition to stop the Tories from taking power.

 

[bigc]

Johnson would have the support of the unions, which could be a telling factor.

Milliband had a chance to usurp Gordon Brown a few months back and was either loyal or a bottle job!

But I think Brown will cling on until the voters speak.

Plus Johnson seems more down to eath than Brown or Miliband, I think the thinking is he could actually communicate to the general public without sounding like a robot.

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

This Alan Johnson thing is weird. Where the gollyjosh did he come from?

Can't see him being the next Labour leader. My money would be on David Milliband.

Also, can't see Labour being destroyed, mainly because of the lack of trust there still is in the current opposition.

I think there is only a lack of trust amongst die hard soclialists that would never in a million years vote conservative.

There are nearly 50 Labour seats that only need a swing of 3% to Conservative for them to win. If the conservative got a swing of 9% (which considering that the Crewe and Nantwich swing was virtually 18%, isn't unrealistic) then they would gain 172 seats.

 

[The Large One]

I think there is only a lack of trust amongst die hard soclialists that would never in a million years vote conservative.

There are nearly 50 Labour seats that only need a swing of 3% to Conservative for them to win. If the conservative got a swing of 9% (which considering that the Crewe and Nantwich swing was virtually 18%, isn't unrealistic) then they would gain 172 seats.

General Elections and bi-elections don't usually offer up the same types of results or swings.

Even Labour's 97 landslide was 'only' an 8% swing - which is enormous in General Election stats. The parallel being that it was an unpopular administration that had lost the trust of the electorate. The difference being that there was at the time considered a viable alternative.

The other issue about Alan Johnson which some might still find hard to stomach at the next Labour leadership election is that he voted for the Iraq War and against an investigation into it, plus he voted in favour of the ID Cards and student top-up loans. If the Labour Party membership want a change in direction or attitude, they're not going to vote for any sense of continuity that Alan Johnson would offer.

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

General Elections and bi-elections don't usually offer up the same types of results or swings.

Even Labour's 97 landslide was 'only' an 8% swing - which is enormous in General Election stats. The parallel being that it was an unpopular administration that had lost the trust of the electorate. The difference being that there was at the time considered a viable alternative.

I think the similarities between the two situations are closer than you think, or maybe closer than you care to admit.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Bye election results cant be taken as a true indication of swing that would occur in a General Election. Very often a massive swing is only an indication of protest midway through a Parliamentary term and at the ensuing General Election the seat changes back or is retained with a much smaller majority.

 

[Vatican Citys No.2 Keeper]

I can see the Tories gaining the most seats by a small margin, but Labour and the Lib Dems forming a coalition government.

Would that be possible?? As a Politics student I've been taught that the party that wins the most seats, even if they do not win an outright majority, are the ones who will make up the next government because of the mandate given to them by the public.

Therefore would the tories not seek a coalition with the Lib Dems if they won the election, which is the most likely outcome IMO.

 

[vulture]

lol....Labour is finished and the tories will win by a landslide

 

[bigc]

Would that be possible?? As a Politics student I've been taught that the party that wins the most seats, even if they do not win an outright majority, are the ones who will make up the next government because of the mandate given to them by the public.

.

Well if they couldn't form a majority then it would be irrelevant. They could operate a minority adminstration but that wouldn't last too long.

Where you studying Politics?

 

[The Large One]

I think the similarities between the two situations are closer than you think, or maybe closer than you care to admit.

The public perception of the Tories now, compared to Labour in 97 are not comparable.

I don't know anyone who puts the same faith in David Cameron as they did Tony Blair - irrespective of the hindsight we now have about the latter, and irrespective of which party you would normally vote for. If Cameron wins the next one, will there be the same scenes of joy and jubilation across the country, the same cause for hope for a new start? Of course not.

 

[BLOCK F]

The Conservatives would win by a comfortable margin....no hung parliament,no coalition.
Thankfully,the rest of the country isn't such a Tory hating populace as the vociferous leftie head in the sand mob on NSC!!:yahoo:

 

[vulture]

The public perception of the Tories now, compared to Labour in 97 are not comparable.

I don't know anyone who puts the same faith in David Cameron as they did Tony Blair - irrespective of the hindsight we now have about the latter, and irrespective of which party you would normally vote for. If Cameron wins the next one, will there be the same scenes of joy and jubilation across the country, the same cause for hope for a new start? Of course not.

Alan,
The reason for this is all the hope we had for Blair and Co in 1997 and 18 years of shit tory rule.
How ever Labour under Gordon Brown is killing this country and Brown has to be the worst pm ever.I agree the torys will get to power only because of how bad Brown is.
I voted labour in 97,01 and 05 for Blair and new labour not for this total and utter clown Brown so with a heavy heart I voted Tory today.Labour will in my view be blown off the map because of all the broken promises to the British public all the lies.
Watching the last few days has been tragic for this country and I will be just as happy to see Brown and his cronies go as I was in 97 when Major and his useless lot went

 

[Vatican Citys No.2 Keeper]

Well if they couldn't form a majority then it would be irrelevant. They could operate a minority adminstration but that wouldn't last too long.

Where you studying Politics?

Worthing College, wording might have been misleading making it sound like i meant uni, sorry bout that!!

true, but would make life difficult for them if the opposition voted against them every time. Also have to take into account that if it is a very very small margin, then the Abstaining Sinn Feinn MPs could make all the difference.

 

[bigc]

Worthing College, wording might have been misleading making it sound like i meant uni, sorry bout that!!

true, but would make life difficult for them if the opposition voted against them every time. Also have to take into account that if it is a very very small margin, then the Abstaining Sinn Feinn MPs could make all the difference.

No I guessed, no worries. You seemed far too upbeat for someone who would be studying it at Uni

The independents could become very crucial, there are a few of them already(that Dr, to name but one), if we go down that route.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The Conservatives would win by a comfortable margin....no hung parliament,no coalition.
Thankfully,the rest of the country isn't such a Tory hating populace as the vociferous leftie head in the sand mob on NSC!!:yahoo:

If you lived outside of the Home Counties then you would realise that massive swathes of the country dont particularly like the Conservatives.