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Yes, I know all that (and statistically MoE is 3% per 1,000 data points, ie people polled) But the quote claimed to be 538’s National polling averages Edited to add: I used to live in the US and had a nice big Rednecks for Obama sticker on my pickup truck, so have an interest in what’s going on :)

Well, it’s not what 538 are showing

I think that may be faked See here for the real 538 poll averages, Harris still well in the lead https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

I don’t think you can extrapolate like that. The state-level polls on 538 will be worth following

At the time of writing, all national US presidential election polls reporting in the last week have Harris leading Trump by between 1 and 5 points This may change by the time you click the link https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/