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[Politics] The French election
- Thread starter nicko31
- Start date
This is true, however fortunately the chances of him becoming PM are very thin indeed
There's 'not ideal' and there is f***ing nightmarish. The French did what they had to do.
nicko31
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #324
Think Melenchon is kind of Corbyn like but a bit more divisive, not ideal at all really
The situation is better than RN getting a majority but a stalemate for a rest of Macron's term is going to lead to a lot of frustration.
The overall direction of travel is worrying with RN winning more and more. My concern is the French public will tire a bit like we did during the 2016-19 Brexit chaos, then make a dumb choice in 2027.
Someone of sky described Melenchon as Corbyn on steroids, maybe I was kind with not ideal 
Less nightmareish ha
It's a pattern in quite a few countries now, voting to keep something out rather than actually voting for something
Less nightmareish ha
It's a pattern in quite a few countries now, voting to keep something out rather than actually voting for something
The decay of the centreSomeone of sky described Melenchon as Corbyn on steroids, maybe I was kind with not ideal
Less nightmareish ha
It's a pattern in quite a few countries now, voting to keep something out rather than actually voting for something
I don't think you can blame the population, just like you can't blame the majority of those that voted to leave the EU here.
It's down to those in charge.
If France does go that way, it's because they have been let down and are looking to more radical ideas/parties
Someone of sky described Melenchon as Corbyn on steroids, maybe I was kind with not ideal
Less nightmareish ha
It's a pattern in quite a few countries now, voting to keep something out rather than actually voting for something
Sounds great!
rogersix
Well-known member
- Jan 18, 2014
- 8,185
That's not the democratic contract, we're all responsible, even people who don't vote
I actually think the French are potentially about 7 years ahead of us, rather than lagging behind. Le Pen (the far-right, not so secretly posh, leader who wants the country to isolate and remove itself as part of European blocs...) had under 10 seats in the 2017 legislative election. She then spent the next five years mobilising and "de-demonizing" her party to achieve remarkable success in 2022, and now has created the largest single party in France.
It's a warning for what may come with Farage if a) Labour do not deliver the promise of positive change, and b) if the conservatives allow themselves to become Farage's plaything and mould the UK's second party in his image as Trump did in America.
I am hopeful however, that this is the ceiling of what fringe parties can achieve. That it is too difficult in the modern world to represent the "bigger concerns" of the cities with the "smaller concerns" of the towns all at the same time (I mean smaller and bigger in terms of catchment and financials, not in terms of importance). In a system like France, that means you are unlikely to achieve a majority. I also think that tactical voting and compromise from all sides is becoming the norm and that is also a good thing. It should force parties to work together closer to deliver for their constituents and the wider country.
On top of this, it's hard to see how the far-right can play on people's fears for a continuing period. Things are either going to get considerably better financially with the global economy improving and Russia fuelling a rapid move away from gas and oil in the Western World, or they'll get considerably worse and there is no way the people will lurch towards Russia if war comes back to Europe.
Looking to 2027, Macron cannot run another term and the centre will have to find someone who is able to really quash Le Pen as all the polls state the options they currently have (Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal) are currently neck and neck with Le Pen and would likely lose to her. They have time to sort this out, and offer France a positive alternative who is neither Le Pen or Melanchon.
You have a point. And a country that enjoyed it's first democratic election and after a bit decided they didn't like the government decided to revolt against democracy and have a revolution. Egypt.Someone of sky described Melenchon as Corbyn on steroids, maybe I was kind with not ideal
Less nightmareish ha
It's a pattern in quite a few countries now, voting to keep something out rather than actually voting for something
However..... is this really new? Maybe on the whole people on average vote against something rather than for it. When we were given the chance we even did it to the EU. 'Yes' when we weren't in it, then 'no' when we were.
Human beings, eh?
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,079
I’m not so sure we can draw those kinds of parallels. As I said above, our political pedigree in Britain is very different to that of Continental Europe. Conservatism and the socialist/Labour movement in Britain have spanned a breadth of ideology since the 1930s that has been able to embrace and modify both ends of the political spectrum without the need for either extreme to assert itself as it has done in France. 5 seats built around the cult of personality that is Nigel Farage in a Parliament where the Government has a large majority will be loud and mouthy, a Speaker’s nightmare but largely ineffectual.
Provided the Conservatives rebrand and regroup, the opposition they will provide will be suffice to ensure that Reform is no more than it is now; little more than a minority protest voice of the disenfranchised and impoverished who have been brain washed by a well-heeled toff into believing ’white washing’ our communities is the panacea to end all their ills.
I actually agree with you for the most part here but I think the Conservative party stands at a fork in the road right now. If they can rebuild a viable opposition with someone like Hunt or Tugendhat as their leader, then they'll have done exceptionally well to fend off the right of their party.
As I say later in my post, the opportunity for Farage to become the UK's Le Pen, is by gaining control of the conservatives and finding a middle point between where they sit now and the far right. One of Le Pen's great strengths was to "detoxify" her party so that they were palatable for those on the centre-right. It's how RN has gone from 8 seats in 2017 to 142 in 2024. Don't get me wrong, Reform are not a real political party, and you are absolutely right, they will never be more than a minority protest voice. If the Conservatives swallow up Farage however, then they won't need to exist, they'll be the party of opposition.
Overall however, my post was really just to say, that the idea that this is France's Brexit and they need to learn from our political issues over the last decade, is a little naïve and possibly, we should be watching and learning.